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today's slate

BOS @ NYY

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 823539free Saturday

refreshed 675h 24m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 7:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 49%

wind

3 mph

out to RF

precip

mostly clear

park

NYY

open · HP→CF 75°

wind impact on total

+0.04 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jake BennettLHP · BOS	Carlos RodónLHP · NYY
xERA 2026	3.29	4.00
xwOBA 2026	0.282	0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.013	-0.034
xERA 2025	—	3.33
xwOBA 2025	—	0.285
Outs/TB 25-26	2.44	2.64
FIP 25-26	3.30	3.74
kwERA 25-26	3.73	3.53
K% 25-26	19.0%	25.7%
BB% 25-26	5.1%	10.1%
IP 25+26 combined	87.7	249.7
ERA actual 2026	3.49	3.15
ERA (L4)	5.73	2.45
WHIP (L4)	1.36	1.15
K% (L4)	21.9%	22.1%
BB% (L4)	7.3%	13.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	4.58
L4 window	08/02→08/23 (4 st)	06/23→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−1)	106 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.01 (−0.08)	4.81 (+0.40)
Arsenal RV/100	1.12	0.46

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 1.12

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.330
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.190
Sinker—+2.00xwOBA 0.283
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.270
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.316
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.426

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 0.46

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.403
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.235
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.294
Sinker—+3.10xwOBA 0.225

away · BOS vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.846

Σ match

2.891

Σ FRV

+34.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Jahmai Jones	0.333	0.347	-1.6
2	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.284	0.282	+15.5
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.353	0.354	+5.6
4	1B	Willson Contreras	0.376	0.383	+2.8
5	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.288	0.298	+4.6
6	C	Adley Rutschman	0.338	0.335	+10.0
7	SS	Andruw Monasterio	0.301	0.322	-9.6
8	2B	Nick Sogard	0.319	0.327	+2.7
9	LF	Eli White	0.254	0.244	+4.2

home · NYY vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.833

Σ match

2.525

Σ FRV

-1.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0.310	0.281	+5.7
2	DH	Ben Rice	0.377	0.355	-4.1
3	2B	Amed Rosario	0.312	0.264	-7.9
4	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.319	0.269	-5.7
5	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.348	0.304	+8.1
6	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.298	0.270	-1.3
7	3B	José Caballero	0.280	0.251	+0.7
8	CF	Spencer Jones	0.325	0.289	-1.1
9	C	Ali Sánchez	0.264	0.241	+4.1

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+10.0
framing+5.7
blocking+1.0
throwing+3.3

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Ali Sánchez

FRV+4.1
framing+5.3
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.8

BOS · Jake Bennett

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs SF · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.01

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Carlos Rodón

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs TOR · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	106
Location+	—	—	88
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.81

Last 3 starts: 2026-06-28 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.29–0.42]

0.085 R/PA · 0.120 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.20)

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.53]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Justin Topa (5.17)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.47	31.2	10.8	0.96	30/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.21	29.2	4.2	0.97	2/21/7	stable
Tyron Guerrero	SETUP	SU	2.49	24.0	4.0	1.03	0/17/2	ramping up
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.70	34.2	13.6	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.17	23.8	7.5	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.08	26.6	11.8	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.22	17.5	7.5	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	4.98	14.7	2.9	—	1/0/0	—

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.54	27.8	7.7	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.26	30.4	7.5	1.01	0/22/6	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.52	11.2	5.4	0.84	2/9/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.67	20.3	9.5	1.53	1/9/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.76	17.5	9.0	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Yerry De los Santos	MR	MR	4.36	16.5	10.1	1.73	0/0/1	ramping down
Michael Fulmer	unknown	LR	2.22	27.8	11.1	—	0/1/0	—
Justin Topa	unknown	MR	6.22	13.6	11.7	—	2/4/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 BOS · 0 NYY

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

0 R

0H · 0HR · 0BB · 0K · 0LOB

Their pitching

0.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K · relief 0.0 IP

NYY

0 R

0H · 0HR · 0BB · 0K · 0LOB

Their pitching

0.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K · relief 0.0 IP