Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

BOS @ NYY

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 823501free Saturday

refreshed 669h 13m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 41%

wind

5 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

NYY

open · HP→CF 75°

wind impact on total

+0.09 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

BOS: Alec Gamboa opens → bulk: Brayan Bello· predicted bulk based on 3/9 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Alec GamboaLHP · opener · BOS	Brayan BelloRHP · bulk · BOS	Max FriedLHP · NYY
xERA 2026	2.49	5.35	2.53
xwOBA 2026	0.246	0.352	0.248
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.003	-0.023	-0.008
xERA 2025	—	4.48	3.38
xwOBA 2025	—	0.327	0.287
Outs/TB 25-26	2.82	2.11	2.68
FIP 25-26	3.22	4.22	2.91
kwERA 25-26	4.20	4.27	3.39
K% 25-26	17.5%	17.5%	23.7%
BB% 25-26	7.5%	8.1%	6.9%
IP 25+26 combined	20.7	257.0	281.7
ERA actual 2026	1.31	4.68	2.81
ERA (L4)	0.00	5.17	1.83
WHIP (L4)	0.38	1.40	0.86
K% (L4)	11.1%	15.7%	34.7%
BB% (L4)	11.1%	8.6%	8.3%
IP/gm (L4)	1.33	3.92	4.92
L4 window	08/17→08/25 (2 outs)	06/04→08/17 (4 outs)	07/22→08/07 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	121 (+9)	92 (−1)	109 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	0.28 (−3.62)	2.66 (−1.40)	2.73 (−1.08)
Arsenal RV/100	1.46	-0.08	1.47

away arsenal · BULK Brayan Bello — BOS

RV/100 -0.08

Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.367
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.291
Cutter—-1.40xwOBA 0.426
Sweeper—+1.70xwOBA 0.190
4-Seam Fastball—-5.10xwOBA 0.514
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.378

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 1.47

Cutter—+2.00xwOBA 0.249
Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.270
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.265
Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.218
Changeup—+2.30xwOBA 0.240
Sweeper—+2.20xwOBA 0.173

away · BOS vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.803

Σ match

2.216

Σ FRV

+16.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Jahmai Jones	0.333	0.281	-1.6
2	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.284	0.213	+15.5
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.353	0.278	+5.6
4	1B	Willson Contreras	0.376	0.295	+2.8
5	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.288	0.225	+4.6
6	SS	Andruw Monasterio	0.301	0.238	-9.6
7	2B	Nick Sogard	0.319	0.257	+2.7
8	C	Connor Wong	0.295	0.223	-7.8
9	LF	Eli White	0.254	0.206	+4.2

home · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.878

Σ match

3.308

Σ FRV

-5.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Trent Grisham	0.341	0.372	-4.6
2	DH	Ben Rice	0.377	0.419	-4.1
3	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.319	0.362	-5.7
4	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.354	0.403	+0.4
5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.293	0.365	+4.5
6	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.298	0.323	-1.3
7	LF	Spencer Jones	0.325	0.372	-1.1
8	C	Austin Wells	0.291	0.363	+5.7
9	3B	José Caballero	0.280	0.330	+0.7

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Connor Wong

FRV-7.8
framing-6.8
blocking+0.2
throwing-1.2

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.7
framing+5.3
blocking+1.6
throwing-1.2

BOS · Brayan Bello

Last outing 2026-08-17 vs AZ · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	119
Pitching+	—	—	110
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	2.66

Last 3 outings: 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-17. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Max Fried

Last outing 2026-08-07 vs ATL · 6.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	109
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	118
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	2.73

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-27 → 2026-08-07. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.29–0.42]

0.085 R/PA · 0.120 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.20)

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.52]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.70)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.47	31.2	10.8	0.96	30/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.18	29.2	4.1	0.97	2/22/7	stable
Tyron Guerrero	SETUP	SU	2.50	23.4	3.9	1.03	0/18/2	ramping up
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.70	34.2	13.6	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.17	23.8	7.5	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.02	26.7	11.6	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.22	17.5	7.5	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	4.97	14.7	2.9	—	1/0/0	—

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.54	27.8	7.7	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.26	30.4	7.5	1.01	0/22/6	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.51	11.2	5.4	0.84	2/9/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.67	20.3	9.5	1.53	1/9/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.75	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Yerry De los Santos	MR	MR	4.34	16.2	10.0	1.73	0/0/1	ramping down
Michael Fulmer	unknown	LR	2.22	27.8	11.1	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 BOS · 9 NYY

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

2 R

6H · 1HR · 2BB · 10K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.364 · K% 27.8

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 5 K · relief 6.7 IP · 3 arms

NYY

9 R

13H · 0HR · 1BB · 5K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.385 · SLGe 0.371 · K% 12.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 5.3 IP · 7 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Nick Sogard (2B) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Ceddanne Rafaela (CF) · 0-40-for-4
Caleb Durbin (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Andruw Monasterio (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Luis García Jr. (1B) · 3-4 | RBI, R, SB3 H

tough nights

Trent Grisham (CF) · 0-4 | BB, K, R0-for-4