Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

AZ @ SF

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 823177free Saturday

refreshed 671h 27m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 4:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

68°F

humidity 71%

wind

12 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

+0.40 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.40 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Merrill KellyRHP · AZ	Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF
xERA 2026	7.18	4.52
xwOBA 2026	0.398	0.327
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.034	0.062
xERA 2025	4.16	—
xwOBA 2025	0.316	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.86	1.13
FIP 25-26	4.57	4.66
kwERA 25-26	4.06	4.44
K% 25-26	19.2%	8.0%
BB% 25-26	8.0%	0.0%
IP 25+26 combined	318.7	5.7
ERA actual 2026	5.35	6.35
ERA (L4)	7.08	9.82
WHIP (L4)	1.67	1.91
K% (L4)	13.0%	11.1%
BB% (L4)	15.2%	0.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.08	3.67
L4 window	08/07→08/24 (4 st)	08/23→08/23 (1 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	88 (−1)	79
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.62 (+1.35)	8.21 (+2.19)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.99	1.00

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 -0.99

Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.371
4-Seam Fastball—-1.70xwOBA 0.493
Cutter—-2.70xwOBA 0.430
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.326
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.308
Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.378

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 1.00

4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.316

away · AZ vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.869

Σ match

3.050

Σ FRV

+30.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.301	0.309	+3.0
2	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.348	0.343	+3.7
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.367	0.389	+7.8
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.329	0.351	+9.0
5	DH	Nolan Arenado	0.290	0.341	+1.9
6	1B	Tim Tawa	0.316	0.290	-1.7
7	3B	Jose Fernandez	0.286	0.337	+1.7
8	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.325	0.319	+0.4
9	LF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.307	0.372	+4.9

home · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.724

Σ match

3.464

Σ FRV

-6.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Drew Gilbert	0.331	0.430	+2.3
2	1B	Rafael Devers	0.328	0.439	-4.5
3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	0.354	0.455	+0.7
4	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.314	0.401	-5.8
5	LF	Turner Hill	0.356	0.404	-0.0
6	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.331	0.415	-1.1
7	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.249	0.326	+0.2
8	2B	Nate Furman	0.226	0.304	-0.3
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.235	0.291	+2.4

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.8
framing+4.3
blocking+1.3
throwing+2.1

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-1.1
framing-2.1
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.8

AZ · Merrill Kelly

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs CHC · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	6.62

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Matt Wilkinson

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs BOS · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	79
Location+	—	—	137
Pitching+	—	—	131
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	8.21

Last 1 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-08-23. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]

0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Justin Martinez (5.40)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.49R / inningband [0.36–0.62]

0.115 R/PA · 0.163 R/out · worst: Anthony Molina (5.06)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Juan Morillo	SETUP	SU	2.42	29.0	8.4	0.92	2/17/9	stable
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	SU	2.54	30.9	6.7	0.83	4/15/6	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	3.02	18.4	5.2	0.93	1/8/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	MR	3.67	23.2	7.0	0.93	2/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.89	14.8	4.4	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	LR	5.39	20.4	10.7	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	2.95	28.4	17.9	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	4.74	16.7	16.7	—	0/0/0	—

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Hentges	MR	SU	3.41	22.7	14.9	0.79	0/10/2	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.60	28.3	11.0	0.88	3/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	SU	3.67	17.5	8.8	1.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Anthony Molina	MR	MR	4.47	8.6	5.7	1.67	0/0/2	insufficient data
Ryan Walker	MR	MR	5.04	15.6	11.3	0.98	3/4/10	stable
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	5.10	17.7	6.5	1.67	0/1/1	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	5.15	17.5	10.0	2.17	1/4/0	insufficient data
Braxton Roxby	unknown	MR	1.07	33.3	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Trent Harris	unknown	MR	1.57	34.1	11.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 AZ · 1 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

7 R

9H · 1HR · 3BB · 6K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.316 · SLGe 0.343 · K% 15.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

SF

1 R

4H · 0HR · 5BB · 9K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.167 · K% 25.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Lars Nootbaar (PH) · 1-1 | HR, 4 RBI, RHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Ildemaro Vargas (2B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Corbin Carroll (RF) · 0-5 | 2 K, R0-for-5 · 2 K

SF · standout lines

tough nights

Drew Gilbert (CF) · 0-40-for-4
Shay Whitcomb (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Christian Koss (SS) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K