Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

PIT @ STL

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 823011free Saturday

refreshed 673h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Busch Stadium

gametime 2:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

88°F

humidity 38%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

STL

open · HP→CF 4°

wind impact on total

+0.20 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.20 R/G vs neutral. _Busch's open bowl — summer south winds slightly aid HR; spring north winds suppress_

opener / bulk pattern

PIT: Lake Bachar opens → bulk: Carmen Mlodzinski· predicted bulk based on 1/39 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Lake BacharRHP · opener · PIT	Carmen MlodzinskiRHP · bulk · PIT	Kyle LeahyRHP · STL
xERA 2026	3.64	5.18	4.84
xwOBA 2026	0.296	0.347	0.337
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.009	-0.019	-0.018
xERA 2025	4.48	4.07	4.42
xwOBA 2025	0.327	0.313	0.325
Outs/TB 25-26	2.23	1.91	2.12
FIP 25-26	4.40	3.51	3.30
kwERA 25-26	3.59	3.89	3.66
K% 25-26	25.2%	19.7%	21.8%
BB% 25-26	10.1%	7.1%	7.3%
IP 25+26 combined	144.0	204.7	214.3
ERA actual 2026	3.70	4.17	3.13
ERA (L4)	3.24	9.45	1.42
WHIP (L4)	1.68	2.48	1.11
K% (L4)	26.3%	9.9%	32.0%
BB% (L4)	18.4%	11.3%	2.7%
IP/gm (L4)	2.08	3.33	4.75
L4 window	06/13→08/23 (4 st)	05/25→08/17 (4 st)	08/07→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−3)	92 (+0)	97 (+5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	8.19 (+4.41)	4.20 (−0.12)	1.93 (−1.99)
Arsenal RV/100	0.79	-0.21	0.27

away arsenal · BULK Carmen Mlodzinski — PIT

RV/100 -0.21

4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.381
Split-Finger—+1.30xwOBA 0.273
Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.416
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.345
Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.261
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.333
Cutter—-3.50xwOBA 0.548

home arsenal — STL

RV/100 0.27

4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.430
Slider—+2.30xwOBA 0.331
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.277
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.306
Sweeper—-0.80xwOBA 0.323
Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.333

away · PIT vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.882

Σ match

3.157

Σ FRV

-4.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.320	0.357	-3.6
2	2B	Brandon Lowe	0.320	0.355	+9.1
3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	0.349	0.383	-3.5
4	DH	Nick Gonzales	0.322	0.360	-9.7
5	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.358	0.392	+0.3
6	RF	Jake Mangum	0.284	0.309	+2.5
7	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0.331	0.344	-0.2
8	SS	Jacob Gonzalez	0.304	0.334	+1.1
9	3B	Jared Triolo	0.294	0.322	-0.3

home · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.872

Σ match

3.199

Σ FRV

+13.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	JJ Wetherholt	0.354	0.393	+20.9
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.331	0.365	-4.0
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.381	0.435	+4.3
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.354	0.394	-6.7
5	CF	Nathan Church	0.285	0.318	+0.4
6	2B	José Fermín	0.299	0.328	-3.6
7	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.283	0.322	+0.1
8	LF	Joshua Báez	0.299	0.327	-0.4
9	C	Jimmy Crooks	0.286	0.319	+2.4

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Rafael Flores Jr.

FRV-0.2
framing+0.6
blocking-0.2
throwing-1.1

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Jimmy Crooks

FRV+2.4
framing+3.8
blocking-1.2
throwing-0.2

PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski

Last outing 2026-08-17 vs DET · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	4.20

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-17. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

STL · Kyle Leahy

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs PHI · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	113
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	1.93

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.42]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Camilo Doval (4.03)

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.36–0.55]

0.108 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.85)

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.30	28.2	10.0	0.99	14/9/21	stable
Kirby Yates	CLOSER	MR	3.33	27.7	10.2	0.87	3/0/15	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.69	27.0	7.1	1.05	1/15/4	stable
Evan Sisk	SETUP	MR	3.27	27.0	10.1	1.14	0/5/5	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.61	27.4	13.4	1.28	2/6/8	stable
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.27	39.4	10.0	0.97	6/9/7	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	LR	4.55	25.0	10.0	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.53	23.3	11.9	0.90	1/5/10	stable

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.62	23.0	9.8	0.99	34/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.83	15.0	8.5	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.57	23.0	10.7	0.98	2/20/7	stable
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.85	24.2	12.3	0.89	2/24/5	stable
Ryan Fernandez	MR	MR	3.08	30.1	9.6	1.21	0/2/4	ramping down
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.16	31.2	6.2	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	4.24	16.0	11.5	1.18	1/6/10	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 PIT · 2 STL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PIT

6 R

11H · 2HR · 4BB · 13K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.486 · K% 31.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 K · relief 6.7 IP · 6 arms

STL

2 R

3H · 1HR · 2BB · 7K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.167 · SLGe 0.212 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 13 K · relief 6.0 IP · 4 arms

PIT · standout lines

big nights

Brandon Lowe (2B) · 1-3 | HR, 2 BB, 2 KHR
Rafael Flores Jr. (C) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Spencer Horwitz (1B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

STL · standout lines

big nights

Joshua Báez (LF) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

JJ Wetherholt (SS) · 0-40-for-4
Jordan Walker (RF) · 0-4 | R0-for-4
José Fermín (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K