Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SD @ TB

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 822936free Saturday

refreshed 672h 18m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

91°F

humidity 59%

wind

5 mph

out to RF

precip

12%

clear

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.11 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Walker BuehlerRHP · SD	Nick MartinezRHP · TB
xERA 2026	4.17	4.28
xwOBA 2026	0.315	0.319
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.007	-0.025
xERA 2025	5.41	4.04
xwOBA 2025	0.355	0.312
Outs/TB 25-26	1.86	1.91
FIP 25-26	4.92	4.12
kwERA 25-26	4.41	4.09
K% 25-26	18.2%	15.9%
BB% 25-26	10.0%	5.0%
IP 25+26 combined	252.3	313.3
ERA actual 2026	4.63	2.93
ERA (L4)	2.05	3.70
WHIP (L4)	0.91	1.07
K% (L4)	19.3%	18.8%
BB% (L4)	6.0%	2.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	6.08
L4 window	08/06→08/23 (4 st)	08/05→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	98 (+2)	93 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.54 (+0.16)	3.98 (−0.69)
Arsenal RV/100	0.12	0.72

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.12

Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.302
Sinker—+2.00xwOBA 0.279
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.392
Slider—+3.30xwOBA 0.214
Changeup—-4.80xwOBA 0.390
Curveball—-2.70xwOBA 0.365
Sweeper—-1.30xwOBA 0.269

home arsenal — TB

RV/100 0.72

Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.346
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.231
Cutter—+1.60xwOBA 0.343
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.347
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.463
Slider—-6.60xwOBA 0.483

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.929

Σ match

3.108

Σ FRV

+13.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.377	0.397	+5.2
2	SS	Jake Cronenworth	0.284	0.289	-1.9
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.328	0.358	+4.9
4	1B	Ty France	0.331	0.363	+8.3
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.335	0.360	+8.5
6	C	Luis Campusano	0.337	0.373	-6.0
7	DH	Gavin Sheets	0.316	0.328	-3.9
8	2B	Luis Rengifo	0.303	0.318	-2.2
9	LF	Dustin Harris	0.318	0.322	+0.4

home · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.732

Σ match

2.773

Σ FRV

+2.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.355	0.341	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.347	0.356	-2.0
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.364	0.371	-11.4
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.317	0.330	+1.2
5	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.262	0.262	+2.8
6	RF	Jonny DeLuca	0.276	0.284	+8.6
7	2B	Richie Palacios	0.302	0.310	-3.6
8	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.261	0.266	+9.2
9	SS	Taylor Walls	0.248	0.252	-2.0

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Campusano

FRV-6.0
framing-5.6
blocking-0.7
throwing+0.3

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+1.2
framing+0.0
blocking-0.3
throwing+0.6

SD · Walker Buehler

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs MIN · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.54

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TB · Nick Martinez

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs BAL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.56)

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.089 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Manuel Rodríguez (4.20)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.86	47.7	9.3	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.38	29.8	6.8	1.16	2/21/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.35	22.3	8.0	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.41	26.5	6.9	1.09	2/10/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.12	15.1	8.1	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.09	24.5	12.7	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.26	26.3	13.9	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.83	22.4	10.2	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	2.88	28.4	7.8	0.96	38/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.16	21.0	3.9	1.10	4/28/9	stable
Garrett Cleavinger	SETUP	MR	3.53	31.1	10.2	0.88	2/23/3	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.57	25.1	6.4	1.26	5/14/13	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.55	18.2	5.7	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.31	17.4	7.3	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.30	32.5	5.1	1.11	0/9/5	stable
Manuel Rodríguez	unknown	MR	3.07	30.0	20.0	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 SD · 7 TB

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

6 R

10H · 1HR · 4BB · 8K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.378 · K% 19.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

TB

7 R

11H · 2HR · 3BB · 7K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.378 · SLGe 0.529 · K% 18.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Ty France (1B) · 2-5 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR
Dustin Harris (LF) · 3-4 | 2 R, SB3 H

tough nights

Jackson Merrill (CF) · 0-4 | BB0-for-4

TB · standout lines

big nights

Jonathan Aranda (1B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Junior Caminero (3B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Jonny DeLuca (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K