Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SEA @ TOR

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 822770free Saturday

refreshed 672h 25m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rogers Centre

gametime 3:07 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 50%

wind

9 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

TOR

retractable · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

neutralnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kade AndersonLHP · SEA	José SorianoRHP · TOR
xERA 2026	2.80	4.46
xwOBA 2026	0.261	0.325
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.127	-0.029
xERA 2025	—	4.04
xwOBA 2025	—	0.312
Outs/TB 25-26	1.42	2.37
FIP 25-26	6.96	3.73
kwERA 25-26	3.76	4.02
K% 25-26	22.7%	22.2%
BB% 25-26	9.1%	10.8%
IP 25+26 combined	5.7	313.3
ERA actual 2026	4.76	3.43
ERA (L4)	—	4.22
WHIP (L4)	—	1.50
K% (L4)	—	17.4%
BB% (L4)	—	8.7%
IP/gm (L4)	—	5.33
L4 window	—	08/07→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	97 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	4.67 (+0.59)
Arsenal RV/100	—	0.62

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 —

No Savant arsenal data.

home arsenal — TOR

RV/100 0.62

Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.374
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.270
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.382
Split-Finger—+1.20xwOBA 0.243
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.303

away · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.865

Σ match

3.027

Σ FRV

-17.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.349	0.360	-6.9
2	RF	Dominic Canzone	0.358	0.378	+0.3
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.344	0.348	-0.6
4	1B	Josh Naylor	0.316	0.322	+2.4
5	C	Cal Raleigh	0.305	0.323	-0.1
6	2B	Cole Young	0.316	0.338	-2.2
7	DH	Taylor Ward	0.338	0.352	-1.6
8	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.320	0.344	-6.1
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.219	0.262	-2.2

home · TOR vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.680

Σ match

—

Σ FRV

+11.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Brett Bateman	0.260	—	+3.1
2	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.312	—	+8.8
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.333	—	+4.3
4	DH	George Springer	0.306	—	-0.3
5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.318	—	-3.0
6	2B	Charles McAdoo	0.275	—	-0.1
7	SS	Ernie Clement	0.266	—	-3.8
8	LF	Daz Cameron	0.316	—	-0.9
9	CF	Myles Straw	0.294	—	+3.6

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-0.1
framing-1.2
blocking+3.4
throwing-2.3

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+8.8
framing+5.8
blocking+3.5
throwing-0.6

SEA · Kade Anderson: no recent outing on file.

TOR · José Soriano

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs NYY · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	4.67

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Gabe Speier (3.96)

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.37–0.55]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: CJ Van Eyk (5.74)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.08	37.7	9.8	0.93	24/0/29	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	3.94	20.7	8.7	0.82	1/17/5	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.97	18.1	5.8	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	3.98	23.6	7.1	0.94	0/25/2	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.11	26.9	13.7	0.89	12/5/18	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	LR	3.73	26.8	9.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	1.00	33.3	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.80	31.4	6.8	1.11	30/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.36	25.8	6.5	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.24	12.9	7.8	0.97	4/28/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.75	25.2	10.4	0.76	1/14/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	MR	4.30	23.1	13.2	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	SU	2.83	22.3	6.0	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
CJ Van Eyk	MR	LR	6.08	2.9	5.7	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	6.03	31.7	19.8	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Michael Lorenzen	SP	MR	5.17	14.7	8.7	4.62	0/0/0	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 SEA · 4 TOR

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

3 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 10K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

TOR

4 R

5H · 0HR · 7BB · 6K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.207 · K% 16.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Cal Raleigh (C) · 2-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Randy Arozarena (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Dominic Canzone (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

TOR · standout lines

tough nights

Ernie Clement (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4