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today's slate

MIA @ WSH

Saturday · August 29, 2026·full·gamePk 822690free Saturday

refreshed 672h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Nationals Park

gametime 4:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

84°F

humidity 43%

wind

3 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

WSH

open · HP→CF 30°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sandy AlcantaraRHP · MIA	Cade CavalliRHP · WSH
xERA 2026	3.64	3.88
xwOBA 2026	0.296	0.305
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.004	-0.002
xERA 2025	4.64	4.13
xwOBA 2025	0.332	0.315
Outs/TB 25-26	2.06	2.01
FIP 25-26	4.02	3.68
kwERA 25-26	4.02	3.24
K% 25-26	18.6%	24.9%
BB% 25-26	7.0%	6.9%
IP 25+26 combined	358.3	197.3
ERA actual 2026	3.38	3.21
ERA (L4)	1.67	2.62
WHIP (L4)	1.04	1.08
K% (L4)	15.7%	30.5%
BB% (L4)	7.4%	5.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.75	6.00
L4 window	08/08→08/24 (4 st)	08/02→08/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−0)	104 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.40 (+1.03)	2.36 (−0.95)
Arsenal RV/100	0.75	0.23

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.75

Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.295
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.269
4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.380
Cutter—+2.60xwOBA 0.302
Sweeper—-0.50xwOBA 0.265
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.165
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.284

home arsenal — WSH

RV/100 0.23

4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.341
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.243
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.349
Sweeper—+2.20xwOBA 0.232
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.356
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.399

away · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.874

Σ match

2.846

Σ FRV

+13.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Kyle Stowers	0.332	0.324	-1.3
2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.353	0.337	+0.4
3	2B	Xavier Edwards	0.315	0.317	-2.2
4	DH	Griffin Conine	0.368	0.377	-2.0
5	SS	Otto Lopez	0.326	0.327	+9.7
6	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.303	0.305	+3.1
7	3B	Javier Sanoja	0.280	0.281	+3.6
8	RF	Owen Caissie	0.301	0.293	-8.3
9	C	Joe Mack	0.296	0.286	+10.3

home · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.777

Σ match

2.672

Σ FRV

-0.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	CJ Abrams	0.335	0.325	-11.6
2	1B	Abimelec Ortiz	0.319	0.315	-0.2
3	LF	José Tena	0.301	0.301	-1.8
4	RF	Daylen Lile	0.322	0.316	+2.4
5	CF	Dylan Crews	0.318	0.293	+1.6
6	C	Keibert Ruiz	0.284	0.276	-0.1
7	3B	Brady House	0.335	0.314	-1.8
8	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.297	0.276	+2.4
9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.266	0.258	+8.3

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+10.3
framing+6.2
blocking+0.5
throwing+3.6

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Keibert Ruiz

FRV-0.1
framing+1.8
blocking-0.1
throwing-1.8

MIA · Sandy Alcantara

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs BOS · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	5.40

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

WSH · Cade Cavalli

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs COL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	2.36

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.35–0.53]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (4.88)

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.32–0.53]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (5.40)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	SU	2.93	25.8	13.1	0.98	2/14/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.40	28.7	10.8	1.06	1/22/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.34	21.3	16.4	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.13	15.9	11.6	0.89	1/1/2	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.28	16.3	11.9	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.44	24.8	4.8	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	1.74	18.2	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tom Cosgrove	SETUP	MR	4.08	20.3	6.2	1.17	1/3/1	ramping up
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	4.12	22.2	10.5	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	LR	4.16	20.9	9.4	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.20	23.0	15.8	0.96	12/7/11	stable
Will Dion	MR	SU	3.83	29.5	6.5	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Max Kranick	MOP_UP	MR	5.84	12.7	10.1	0.67	0/1/0	insufficient data
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	3.83	18.2	18.2	—	0/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	11.08	23.1	23.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 MIA · 5 WSH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

4 R

6H · 1HR · 5BB · 17K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.286 · K% 40.5

Their pitching

9.7 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

WSH

5 R

9H · 0HR · 3BB · 7K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.293 · SLGe 0.297 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 4 ER · 17 K · relief 6.0 IP · 5 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Xavier Edwards (2B) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
Griffin Conine (DH) · 0-3 | BB, HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Jakob Marsee (CF) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

WSH · standout lines

tough nights

CJ Abrams (DH) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K
José Tena (LF) · 0-4 | BB, R0-for-4
Nasim Nuñez (SS) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4