Baseball Daily

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today's slate

BAL @ ATH

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 824960free Saturday

refreshed 692h 57m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 39%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.26 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.26 R/G vs neutral. _Sutter Health Park (Sacramento) — open bowl, delta breeze in afternoon_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Brandon YoungRHP · BAL	Jacob LopezLHP · ATH
xERA 2026	4.37	3.36
xwOBA 2026	0.322	0.285
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.000	0.052
xERA 2025	4.27	3.64
xwOBA 2025	0.320	0.297
Outs/TB 25-26	1.76	1.90
FIP 25-26	4.64	4.54
kwERA 25-26	4.19	3.65
K% 25-26	18.6%	24.9%
BB% 25-26	8.5%	10.3%
IP 25+26 combined	181.0	186.7
ERA actual 2026	3.50	4.98
ERA (L4)	4.50	2.62
WHIP (L4)	1.75	0.92
K% (L4)	15.6%	31.2%
BB% (L4)	10.0%	5.4%
IP/gm (L4)	5.00	6.00
L4 window	08/06→08/22 (4 st)	08/05→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	105 (+8)	106 (+9)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.74 (+0.18)	3.35 (−1.40)
Arsenal RV/100	0.02	-0.38

away arsenal — BAL

RV/100 0.02

4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.335
Split-Finger—-1.30xwOBA 0.312
Slider—-1.10xwOBA 0.262
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.356
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.340

home arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.38

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.270
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.237
Cutter—-0.30xwOBA 0.315
Changeup—-6.20xwOBA 0.410
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.380

away · BAL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.923

Σ match

2.663

Σ FRV

-14.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Blaze Alexander	0.361	0.326	-5.0
2	DH	Pete Alonso	0.393	0.362	-1.2
3	2B	Jackson Holliday	0.309	0.284	-2.9
4	1B	Coby Mayo	0.316	0.291	-2.1
5	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.360	0.321	+1.9
6	RF	Leody Taveras	0.278	0.263	-2.0
7	CF	Christian Franklin	0.329	0.303	-0.2
8	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.310	0.287	-6.9
9	C	Carlos Narváez	0.267	0.227	+3.5

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.681

Σ match

2.843

Σ FRV

-28.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.305	0.319	+3.4
2	2B	Jeff McNeil	0.309	0.316	-3.5
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.300	0.304	-1.3
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.316	0.323	-10.1
5	1B	Tommy White	0.313	0.339	-2.3
6	DH	Max Muncy	0.284	0.312	-5.2
7	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.313	0.334	-5.6
8	C	Jonah Heim	0.294	0.318	-4.1
9	SS	Alika Williams	0.247	0.279	+0.3

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Carlos Narváez

FRV+3.5
framing+1.7
blocking+2.1
throwing-0.3

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-4.1
framing-0.5
blocking-1.6
throwing-0.9

BAL · Brandon Young

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs TB · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	105
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	109
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.74

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Jacob Lopez

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs HOU · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	106
Location+	—	—	114
Pitching+	—	—	112
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.35

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.37–0.42]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Anthony Nunez (3.83)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.50]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Kade Morris (5.04)

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.43	21.8	5.7	0.74	2/11/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	3.15	24.7	7.7	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.87	18.4	6.1	0.87	7/9/11	stable
Anthony Nunez	SETUP	MR	3.89	24.8	11.7	1.12	3/6/7	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.11	26.7	8.6	0.93	6/15/16	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	2.79	26.0	8.7	1.14	0/3/13	stable
Cam Sanders	MR	LR	3.55	28.1	14.6	1.00	3/0/5	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.79	22.1	7.8	1.20	0/2/3	ramping down

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.93	28.9	13.7	0.93	13/12/13	stable
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.95	27.4	12.2	1.38	0/9/10	stable
Kade Morris	BULK	LR	7.58	11.9	9.0	3.33	0/0/2	insufficient data
José Suarez	OPENER	MR	3.79	23.3	9.7	1.59	1/3/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.46	16.7	2.6	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.53	29.8	11.2	1.08	5/8/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	7.66	14.4	9.6	1.28	1/0/6	ramping up
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.59	15.4	6.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 BAL · 3 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BAL

4 R

6H · 0HR · 6BB · 12K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.309 · SLGe 0.200 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

ATH

3 R

9H · 1HR · 1BB · 7K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.275 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 17.5

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

BAL · standout lines

tough nights

Pete Alonso (DH) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Jackson Holliday (2B) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K
Leody Taveras (RF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Jonah Heim (C) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Henry Bolte (CF) · 0-4 | HBP, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K
Alika Williams (SS) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4