Baseball Daily

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today's slate

COL @ ATL

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 824877free Saturday

refreshed 694h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 70%

wind

5 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

21%

overcast

park

ATL

open · HP→CF 63°

wind impact on total

-0.02 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL	Grant HolmesRHP · ATL
xERA 2026	7.05	4.84
xwOBA 2026	0.395	0.337
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.035	-0.021
xERA 2025	5.81	4.55
xwOBA 2025	0.366	0.329
Outs/TB 25-26	1.51	2.04
FIP 25-26	5.38	4.62
kwERA 25-26	4.26	4.05
K% 25-26	14.9%	21.8%
BB% 25-26	5.4%	10.6%
IP 25+26 combined	278.7	238.7
ERA actual 2026	4.96	3.64
ERA (L4)	7.58	5.49
WHIP (L4)	1.63	1.58
K% (L4)	14.9%	13.8%
BB% (L4)	4.6%	10.3%
IP/gm (L4)	4.75	4.92
L4 window	08/05→08/23 (4 st)	07/19→08/15 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	80 (−1)	81 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.02 (+0.11)	4.94 (+0.20)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.84	0.15

away arsenal — COL

RV/100 -0.84

Split-Finger—+0.10xwOBA 0.323
4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.418
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.462
Cutter—-2.50xwOBA 0.487
Sweeper—-2.20xwOBA 0.353
Slider—-1.30xwOBA 0.304
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.341

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.15

Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.300
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.385
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.413
Cutter—-1.30xwOBA 0.427
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.237
Changeup—+2.30xwOBA 0.234

away · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.776

Σ match

3.011

Σ FRV

+1.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jake McCarthy	0.316	0.333	-0.8
2	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.320	0.345	+2.0
3	C	Hunter Goodman	0.332	0.382	-2.1
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.326	0.353	+5.8
5	3B	Willi Castro	0.311	0.351	-3.6
6	DH	Mickey Moniak	0.285	0.310	-0.1
7	2B	Connor Norby	0.298	0.316	+0.9
8	RF	Zac Veen	0.307	0.318	-1.3
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.281	0.303	+0.2

home · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.744

Σ match

3.537

Σ FRV

+7.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.373	0.484	-0.8
2	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.287	0.361	-2.2
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.363	0.460	+6.4
4	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.357	0.452	-5.1
5	CF	Michael Harris II	0.343	0.436	+9.8
6	3B	Mauricio Dubón	0.305	0.390	+4.9
7	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.311	0.382	-1.5
8	C	Sean Murphy	0.192	0.286	-0.6
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.213	0.286	-3.2

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-2.1
framing-0.7
blocking-0.4
throwing-1.0

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-0.6
framing-1.0
blocking+0.6
throwing-0.2

COL · Tomoyuki Sugano

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs CLE · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	80
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	79
botOvr	—	—	43
SIERA	—	—	5.02

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATL · Grant Holmes

Last outing 2026-08-15 vs AZ · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	81
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	91
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.94

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-24 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.41–0.54]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.56)

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.34R / inningband [0.23–0.46]

0.081 R/PA · 0.115 R/out · worst: Ray Kerr (5.40)

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.25	24.8	12.8	0.79	13/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	3.89	22.8	12.5	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.32	20.2	13.2	1.10	4/8/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.51	18.0	6.3	0.86	1/11/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.27	20.1	12.0	0.99	3/8/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	LR	4.50	15.2	7.8	2.28	2/0/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	1.83	36.8	15.8	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.08	20.5	4.5	—	0/0/0	—

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.32	25.9	8.0	1.04	28/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.04	32.0	6.6	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.44	31.0	7.4	1.20	2/15/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.34	26.4	8.0	1.18	1/12/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.69	19.7	6.7	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	LR	2.91	24.0	8.7	1.87	1/0/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.36	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 COL · 6 ATL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

COL

4 R

12H · 0HR · 3BB · 5K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.390 · SLGe 0.371 · K% 12.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

ATL

6 R

14H · 1HR · 1BB · 6K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.410 · SLGe 0.556 · K% 15.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

COL · standout lines

big nights

Hunter Goodman (C) · 3-5 | K, RBI3 H

tough nights

Connor Norby (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 3-3 | 2B, BB, 3 R3 H · 4 TB
Michael Harris II (CF) · 2-3 | HR, 2B, 3 RBIHR