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today's slate

CIN @ CHC

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 824638free Saturday

refreshed 699h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Wrigley Field

gametime 2:20 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 61%

wind

6 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

CHC

open · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

-0.06 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Rhett LowderRHP · CIN	David PetersonLHP · CHC
xERA 2026	5.14	4.87
xwOBA 2026	0.346	0.338
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	-0.006
xERA 2025	—	4.61
xwOBA 2025	—	0.331
Outs/TB 25-26	1.74	2.00
FIP 25-26	4.67	3.69
kwERA 25-26	4.40	4.07
K% 25-26	17.4%	20.2%
BB% 25-26	9.0%	9.1%
IP 25+26 combined	107.0	287.0
ERA actual 2026	5.13	5.17
ERA (L4)	4.18	2.82
WHIP (L4)	1.10	1.48
K% (L4)	13.4%	25.0%
BB% (L4)	7.2%	8.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.92	5.58
L4 window	07/24→08/22 (4 st)	08/01→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (+1)	89 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.42 (−0.35)	4.36 (+0.10)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.42	-0.63

away arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.42

Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.410
Slider—-2.00xwOBA 0.300
Changeup—-0.80xwOBA 0.299
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.351

home arsenal — CHC

RV/100 -0.63

Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.427
4-Seam Fastball—-1.80xwOBA 0.336
Slider—+1.50xwOBA 0.247
Changeup—-1.80xwOBA 0.290
Curveball—-3.00xwOBA 0.310

away · CIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.810

Σ match

3.112

Σ FRV

-9.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Dane Myers	0.315	0.345	-1.1
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.361	0.405	+4.9
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.348	0.387	-2.8
4	DH	Tyler Stephenson	0.336	0.390	-7.0
5	3B	Eugenio Suárez	0.282	0.303	-5.5
6	LF	JJ Bleday	0.351	0.384	-1.0
7	2B	Matt McLain	0.314	0.346	+1.9
8	C	Jose Trevino	0.208	0.231	+1.8
9	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.295	0.322	-0.5

home · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.913

Σ match

3.282

Σ FRV

+53.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.358	0.408	+24.4
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.334	0.389	+7.2
3	1B	Michael Busch	0.332	0.368	+2.3
4	3B	Alex Bregman	0.315	0.356	+5.8
5	LF	Ian Happ	0.314	0.351	+4.4
6	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.322	0.346	+8.4
7	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.301	0.328	+0.9
8	DH	Michael Conforto	0.324	0.396	-1.8
9	C	Carson Kelly	0.313	0.340	+1.4

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Jose Trevino

FRV+1.8
framing+1.3
blocking+0.9
throwing-0.3

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+1.4
framing+2.3
blocking+1.5
throwing-2.5

CIN · Rhett Lowder

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs AZ · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	120
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.42

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-05 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CHC · David Peterson

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs SEA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	89
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	87
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	4.36

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-06 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.50]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.43)

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.67)

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.29	25.2	6.9	0.91	17/0/15	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	MR	4.02	23.4	13.5	0.95	2/15/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.51	20.7	9.1	0.88	1/7/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	SU	6.53	20.3	12.2	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	SU	3.62	35.9	15.2	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	MR	3.92	22.0	7.0	1.00	1/8/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	LR	4.77	24.2	10.2	1.62	2/3/2	stable
Sam Moll	MOP_UP	MR	4.28	21.7	12.3	0.88	1/6/5	stable

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	3.40	27.5	8.8	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.74	26.0	8.5	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	4.12	31.2	13.7	1.15	4/12/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	5.02	27.7	8.1	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	3.82	23.5	11.3	1.12	1/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	SU	4.25	15.2	9.1	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.79	18.0	6.6	4.67	1/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.91	17.1	8.2	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

10 CIN · 8 CHC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CIN

10 R

13H · 4HR · 4BB · 10K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.391 · SLGe 0.610 · K% 21.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

CHC

8 R

13H · 2HR · 2BB · 7K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.357 · SLGe 0.575 · K% 16.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 10 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 3-5 | K, 2 RBI, R3 H
Sal Stewart (1B) · 2-4 | HR, BB, KHR
Tyler Stephenson (DH) · 2-5 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR
Jose Trevino (C) · 2-5 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Dane Myers (CF) · 0-5 | BB0-for-5
Eugenio Suárez (3B) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Matt McLain (2B) · 0-4 | HBP, K, R0-for-4

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Seiya Suzuki (RF) · 3-5 | 2 2B, K, 2 RBI3 H · 5 TB
Michael Busch (1B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
Nico Hoerner (SS) · 3-5 | R, SB3 H
Pedro Ramírez (2B) · 1-4 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR