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today's slate

KC @ CLE

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 824396free Saturday

refreshed 694h 37m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 42%

wind

7 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

-0.21 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.21 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Michael WachaRHP · KC	Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE
xERA 2026	4.11	4.31
xwOBA 2026	0.313	0.320
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.008	-0.017
xERA 2025	4.16	3.64
xwOBA 2025	0.316	0.297
Outs/TB 25-26	2.01	1.95
FIP 25-26	3.90	4.46
kwERA 25-26	3.96	3.80
K% 25-26	18.4%	20.4%
BB% 25-26	6.3%	7.0%
IP 25+26 combined	335.3	338.7
ERA actual 2026	3.49	3.97
ERA (L4)	3.33	4.88
WHIP (L4)	0.95	1.12
K% (L4)	15.8%	23.0%
BB% (L4)	4.2%	6.0%
IP/gm (L4)	6.08	6.00
L4 window	08/06→08/22 (4 st)	08/05→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (−11)	101 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.84 (+1.51)	4.18 (−0.18)
Arsenal RV/100	0.27	0.24

away arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.27

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.347
Changeup—+1.70xwOBA 0.222
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.357
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.379
Curveball—-0.90xwOBA 0.307
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.308

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 0.24

Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.331
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.325
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.358
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.239
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.324
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.304

away · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.749

Σ match

2.886

Σ FRV

+6.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.293	0.319	+1.6
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.380	0.399	+18.1
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.362	0.358	-6.4
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.301	0.334	-9.3
5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.329	0.346	+2.9
6	2B	Nick Loftin	0.301	0.316	-1.8
7	LF	Isaac Collins	0.299	0.307	+0.5
8	3B	Josh Rojas	0.213	0.234	-2.4
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.271	0.271	+3.3

home · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.872

Σ match

2.914

Σ FRV

+21.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Steven Kwan	0.324	0.330	+8.2
2	DH	Chase DeLauter	0.345	0.344	+0.8
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.346	0.343	+2.0
4	RF	Jo Adell	0.330	0.338	-6.7
5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.339	0.352	-2.4
6	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.300	0.307	-1.1
7	C	Patrick Bailey	0.302	0.306	+5.8
8	CF	Petey Halpin	0.293	0.297	+3.6
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.293	0.298	+11.1

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.6
framing+2.3
blocking-2.8
throwing+2.2

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Patrick Bailey

FRV+5.8
framing+4.4
blocking-1.3
throwing+2.7

KC · Michael Wacha

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs DET · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	5.84

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Tanner Bibee

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs COL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.18

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.43–0.54]

0.114 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.46]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.29)

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.39	23.1	11.8	1.03	10/3/20	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	SU	4.90	18.0	11.0	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	9.08	12.7	10.9	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.27	25.6	9.0	1.06	5/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	LR	2.79	22.6	12.9	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Craig Kimbrel	MR	MR	4.15	21.9	11.2	1.03	1/1/15	stable
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.08	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.76	20.0	12.9	—	3/4/0	—

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.51	34.0	8.1	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.74	39.2	15.1	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Colin Holderman	SETUP	MR	3.08	23.6	9.0	0.99	1/11/8	ramping down
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.43	25.4	6.6	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.96	22.1	9.5	0.86	1/27/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.53	21.5	12.3	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Logan Allen	BULK	LR	4.54	22.4	6.9	3.67	0/0/1	insufficient data
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	5.05	23.4	11.3	1.33	0/1/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 KC · 0 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

KC

3 R

9H · 1HR · 2BB · 9K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.316 · SLGe 0.441 · K% 23.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 12 K · relief 1.0 IP · 2 arms

CLE

0 R

6H · 0HR · 0BB · 12K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.182 · K% 35.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

KC · standout lines

big nights

Carter Jensen (C) · 1-5 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Nick Loftin (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Kyle Isbel (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CLE · standout lines

tough nights

Steven Kwan (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
José Ramírez (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Nathaniel Lowe (1B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K