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today's slate

LAD @ DET

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 824231free Saturday

refreshed 694h 36m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Comerica Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 48%

wind

5 mph

in from CF

precip

mostly clear

park

DET

open · HP→CF 150°

wind impact on total

-0.12 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.12 R/G vs neutral. _Comerica's huge CF + upper-deck overhang creates dead-air zone in deep CF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD	Drew AndersonRHP · DET
xERA 2026	2.94	3.70
xwOBA 2026	0.267	0.298
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.002	0.023
xERA 2025	2.71	—
xwOBA 2025	0.258	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.51	1.89
FIP 25-26	2.50	4.17
kwERA 25-26	2.13	3.30
K% 25-26	31.7%	26.1%
BB% 25-26	4.4%	8.6%
IP 25+26 combined	316.0	81.3
ERA actual 2026	2.91	4.09
ERA (L4)	3.65	3.57
WHIP (L4)	1.05	1.25
K% (L4)	30.0%	18.1%
BB% (L4)	6.0%	8.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.17	4.42
L4 window	07/29→08/22 (4 st)	08/05→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	119 (+2)	93 (−7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.86 (+1.12)	5.04 (+1.63)
Arsenal RV/100	1.06	-0.11

away arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.06

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.297
Changeup—+1.70xwOBA 0.221
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.317
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.248
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.207

home arsenal — DET

RV/100 -0.11

4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.307
Changeup—-1.30xwOBA 0.260
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.274
Slider—-5.70xwOBA 0.527

away · LAD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.008

Σ match

2.804

Σ FRV

+6.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	0.404	0.361	—
2	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.371	0.352	+3.2
3	SS	Mookie Betts	0.327	0.296	+7.9
4	3B	Max Muncy	0.351	0.336	+3.5
5	2B	Tommy Edman	0.316	0.275	+2.2
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.323	0.315	-7.9
7	CF	Alek Thomas	0.284	0.267	+2.0
8	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.310	0.301	-4.1
9	C	Hunter Feduccia	0.322	0.301	-0.2

home · DET vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.870

Σ match

2.535

Σ FRV

+0.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Gleyber Torres	0.326	0.278	+1.8
2	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.305	0.269	-6.7
3	SS	Kevin McGonigle	0.352	0.305	-0.0
4	C	Dillon Dingler	0.351	0.308	+11.9
5	DH	Eduardo Valencia	0.320	0.285	+0.1
6	RF	Ben Malgeri	0.330	0.297	+0.4
7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.310	0.286	-7.0
8	CF	Max Clark	0.308	0.261	+2.8
9	LF	Javier Báez	0.268	0.247	-2.5

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Feduccia

FRV-0.2
framing+3.0
blocking-1.2
throwing-2.0

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.9
framing+7.2
blocking+2.4
throwing+2.4

LAD · Tarik Skubal

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs PIT · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	119
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	125
botOvr	—	—	61
SIERA	—	—	3.86

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

DET · Drew Anderson

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs KC · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.04

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.29–0.46]

0.089 R/PA · 0.126 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.28)

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.34–0.56]

0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Tanner Rainey (5.40)

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.35	31.0	5.7	0.94	19/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.58	28.7	10.6	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.38	29.9	15.7	0.76	3/17/6	stable
Kyle Hurt	SETUP	MR	3.81	28.9	12.2	1.01	1/9/10	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.37	30.8	8.4	1.01	1/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	SU	3.51	26.5	8.8	1.06	1/6/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	MR	4.94	25.0	6.9	1.00	0/5/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	5.73	17.0	16.0	0.90	0/2/4	stable

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	5.03	27.9	13.6	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.30	17.4	13.6	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.34	23.1	11.0	0.87	1/11/9	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.05	18.9	5.4	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.21	37.7	9.6	0.63	0/10/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.24	15.4	9.4	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Tanner Rainey	unknown	MR	3.98	24.0	24.0	—	0/0/0	—
Andrew Sears	unknown	LR	5.58	16.7	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 LAD · 1 DET

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAD

2 R

9H · 0HR · 9BB · 9K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.432 · SLGe 0.273 · K% 20.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 12 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

DET

1 R

5H · 0HR · 2BB · 12K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.290 · K% 36.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

LAD · standout lines

tough nights

Shohei Ohtani (DH) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Max Muncy (3B) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4

DET · standout lines

tough nights

Kevin McGonigle (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Dillon Dingler (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Ben Malgeri (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K