Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

PHI @ LAA

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 823985free Saturday

refreshed 692h 59m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 9:38 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

91°F

humidity 38%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.10 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.10 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Andrew PainterRHP · PHI	Reid DetmersLHP · LAA
xERA 2026	4.81	3.34
xwOBA 2026	0.336	0.284
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.020	-0.011
xERA 2025	—	3.61
xwOBA 2025	—	0.296
Outs/TB 25-26	1.62	2.32
FIP 25-26	5.03	3.19
kwERA 25-26	4.08	2.87
K% 25-26	19.3%	29.0%
BB% 25-26	8.3%	7.9%
IP 25+26 combined	92.3	212.7
ERA actual 2026	6.04	3.62
ERA (L4)	3.80	2.35
WHIP (L4)	1.08	0.83
K% (L4)	22.7%	36.0%
BB% (L4)	8.0%	7.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	5.75
L4 window	08/05→08/22 (4 st)	07/28→08/15 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	103 (+2)	101 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.68 (+0.24)	3.35 (−0.01)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.78	0.78

away arsenal — PHI

RV/100 -0.78

4-Seam Fastball—-2.30xwOBA 0.410
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.338
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.322
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.234
Sinker—-0.70xwOBA 0.396
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.221
Changeup—+3.50xwOBA 0.143

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.78

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.318
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.223
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.304
Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.318

away · PHI vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.912

Σ match

2.691

Σ FRV

-5.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.367	0.320	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.292	0.271	-8.6
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.395	0.386	-9.5
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.309	0.277	+9.8
5	1B	Alec Bohm	0.318	0.280	-7.4
6	LF	Bryan De La Cruz	0.292	0.278	+0.5
7	3B	Bryson Stott	0.330	0.304	+5.5
8	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.321	0.287	+2.2
9	CF	Derek Hill	0.288	0.287	+2.9

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.662

Σ match

2.863

Σ FRV

+0.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.305	0.327	-2.7
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.383	0.403	-2.3
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.305	0.333	+1.5
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.310	0.335	-3.4
5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0.297	0.321	-0.8
6	2B	Christian Moore	0.264	0.301	-1.9
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.288	0.303	+3.9
8	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.269	0.283	+0.4
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.241	0.258	+6.3

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+2.2
framing+0.6
blocking-0.8
throwing+2.5

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+6.3
framing+4.3
blocking-0.1
throwing+2.2

PHI · Andrew Painter

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs STL · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	89
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.68

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Reid Detmers

Last outing 2026-08-15 vs KC · 8.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	3.35

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-05 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.32–0.41]

0.086 R/PA · 0.122 R/out · worst: Orion Kerkering (3.93)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.30–0.52]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.85)

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.22	35.4	4.2	0.94	28/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	2.74	30.4	7.3	0.93	1/11/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.34	24.1	8.0	0.89	1/15/5	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.62	24.0	11.8	0.94	1/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.86	27.1	10.1	0.85	1/11/3	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.21	24.9	6.3	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.12	28.2	9.6	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	2.40	24.1	10.3	—	0/0/0	—

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.51	31.4	5.9	0.56	0/4/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	SU	4.01	27.6	10.2	1.11	1/6/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.22	19.0	7.7	1.61	2/3/21	stable
Trevor Martin	MR	MR	8.02	13.0	7.4	1.89	0/0/2	ramping up
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	1.12	42.9	10.7	—	3/1/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.70	22.7	18.2	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	LR	4.68	31.1	6.7	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 PHI · 3 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PHI

5 R

11H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.385 · SLGe 0.400 · K% 12.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

LAA

3 R

3H · 0HR · 4BB · 9K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.103 · K% 25.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 6 arms

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Edmundo Sosa (LF) · 1-1 | HR, 4 RBI, RHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Bryson Stott (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

LAA · standout lines

tough nights

Denzer Guzman (3B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K