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today's slate

TEX @ MIL

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 823744free Saturday

refreshed 694h 32m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · American Family Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 51%

wind

8 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

MIL

retractable · HP→CF 137°

wind impact on total

neutralnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cody BradfordLHP · TEX	Logan HendersonRHP · MIL
xERA 2026	5.24	2.72
xwOBA 2026	0.349	0.257
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.006	0.005
xERA 2025	—	3.69
xwOBA 2025	—	0.299
Outs/TB 25-26	1.77	2.46
FIP 25-26	3.17	3.24
kwERA 25-26	4.16	2.43
K% 25-26	14.9%	30.8%
BB% 25-26	4.6%	6.0%
IP 25+26 combined	20.7	94.7
ERA actual 2026	3.05	2.60
ERA (L4)	3.86	1.80
WHIP (L4)	1.35	0.84
K% (L4)	11.9%	25.8%
BB% (L4)	3.0%	6.5%
IP/gm (L4)	5.44	6.25
L4 window	08/11→08/22 (3 st)	07/28→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	85 (+1)	101 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.85 (−0.05)	3.06 (−0.03)
Arsenal RV/100	0.56	0.93

away arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.56

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.367
Changeup—+1.90xwOBA 0.232

home arsenal — MIL

RV/100 0.93

4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.239
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.258
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.295

away · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.727

Σ match

2.293

Σ FRV

+18.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Joc Pederson	0.346	0.288	-2.3
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.341	0.290	+0.6
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.319	0.255	+3.3
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.355	0.278	-4.3
5	3B	Ezequiel Duran	0.302	0.249	+11.8
6	CF	Evan Carter	0.283	0.224	+7.0
7	1B	Jake Burger	0.313	0.266	+4.1
8	2B	Cody Freeman	0.218	0.220	+1.1
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.250	0.223	-3.2

home · MIL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.902

Σ match

2.916

Σ FRV

+9.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Brice Turang	0.341	0.329	+11.3
2	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.343	0.346	+4.0
3	1B	Jake Bauers	0.370	0.396	-9.0
4	C	William Contreras	0.335	0.330	-2.8
5	DH	Christian Yelich	0.312	0.328	+0.0
6	SS	Joey Ortiz	0.297	0.287	+10.3
7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.348	0.314	+3.5
8	RF	Sal Frelick	0.281	0.290	-2.3
9	3B	David Hamilton	0.275	0.295	-5.9

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.2
framing-4.4
blocking+1.6
throwing-0.4

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.8
framing-4.4
blocking-1.4
throwing+3.1

TEX · Cody Bradford

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs LAA · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	85
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	4.85

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIL · Logan Henderson

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs ATL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	61
SIERA	—	—	3.06

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.38–0.43]

0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Chase Silseth (3.89)

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.46]

0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: DL Hall (4.08)

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.45	29.7	8.2	1.28	26/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.28	18.2	5.0	1.12	5/16/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.96	26.1	13.5	0.85	0/13/7	stable
Cole Winn	SETUP	MR	3.99	22.8	7.4	0.93	1/9/5	stable
Peyton Gray	SETUP	MR	4.19	24.1	6.8	1.23	0/8/5	ramping down
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.80	20.7	6.9	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.53	23.2	10.1	1.04	0/4/2	stable
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.08	19.1	2.1	—	0/0/0	—

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.73	28.5	7.0	0.97	24/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.91	31.7	11.2	1.23	2/12/5	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	MR	4.30	21.9	10.0	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Bryse Wilson	BULK	LR	2.92	20.7	1.5	2.73	0/0/3	ramping down
Chad Patrick	SWING	SU	3.77	21.5	9.2	2.46	5/9/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.49	20.5	8.0	1.61	3/8/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.80	27.2	16.2	1.29	0/5/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 TEX · 6 MIL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TEX

1 R

2H · 1HR · 1BB · 12K · 3LOB

OBPe 0.100 · SLGe 0.172 · K% 40.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 2 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms

MIL

6 R

14H · 0HR · 4BB · 2K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.439 · SLGe 0.444 · K% 4.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 12 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Danny Jansen (C) · 1-3 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Joc Pederson (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Corey Seager (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Christian Yelich (DH) · 3-5 | 2B, RBI3 H · 4 TB