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today's slate

CWS @ MIN

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 823666free Saturday

refreshed 694h 26m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Target Field

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 26%

wind

2 mph

out to LF

precip

overcast

park

MIN

open · HP→CF 73°

wind impact on total

+0.04 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Luis CastilloRHP · CWS	Dean KremerRHP · MIN
xERA 2026	4.91	4.28
xwOBA 2026	0.339	0.319
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.007	0.012
xERA 2025	4.04	3.82
xwOBA 2025	0.312	0.304
Outs/TB 25-26	1.81	1.86
FIP 25-26	4.19	4.27
kwERA 25-26	3.66	3.68
K% 25-26	21.1%	21.1%
BB% 25-26	6.5%	6.8%
IP 25+26 combined	298.7	230.3
ERA actual 2026	5.19	5.22
ERA (L4)	5.89	3.18
WHIP (L4)	1.53	0.88
K% (L4)	23.2%	23.3%
BB% (L4)	6.1%	9.3%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	5.67
L4 window	08/06→08/22 (4 st)	08/05→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	91 (−6)	93 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.92 (+0.67)	4.10 (+0.22)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.72	-0.28

away arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.72

4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.343
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.313
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.415
Changeup—-1.30xwOBA 0.275

home arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.28

Split-Finger—-0.20xwOBA 0.241
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.397
Cutter—+1.60xwOBA 0.244
Sinker—-1.30xwOBA 0.439
Curveball—-1.80xwOBA 0.372

away · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.889

Σ match

3.126

Σ FRV

+13.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.343	0.376	-7.9
2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.361	0.401	-1.5
3	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.390	0.389	-4.2
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.312	0.324	-1.6
5	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.320	0.351	+2.6
6	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.302	0.334	+7.3
7	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.294	0.324	+8.9
8	CF	Tristan Peters	0.315	0.342	+9.4
9	C	Drew Romo	0.252	0.284	+0.2

home · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.581

Σ match

3.101

Σ FRV

-24.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.312	0.343	-11.7
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.273	0.306	-3.6
3	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.357	0.381	-1.8
4	2B	Kody Clemens	0.328	0.354	-2.1
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.329	0.369	-0.9
6	1B	Royce Lewis	0.315	0.334	-2.4
7	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.330	0.366	-1.2
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.337	0.364	-0.4
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	—	0.285	—

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Romo

FRV+0.2
framing+0.4
blocking-0.9
throwing+0.8

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-1.8
framing-0.3
blocking+1.0
throwing-2.5

CWS · Luis Castillo

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs NYM · 2.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	4.92

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIN · Dean Kremer

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs SD · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	89
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	4.10

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.39–0.46]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Tyler Davis (4.61)

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.67)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.93	22.5	8.9	1.51	4/10/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.33	32.4	8.7	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.28	22.5	7.4	0.98	5/8/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.55	27.4	14.0	0.91	1/8/6	stable
José Urquidy	MR	MR	3.71	20.7	6.5	1.27	1/0/4	ramping down
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.10	20.8	14.2	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.28	21.9	7.9	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	4.32	35.0	22.5	—	0/1/0	—

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.59	20.8	12.0	1.12	20/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.60	33.9	9.8	0.94	5/16/16	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.02	19.0	10.2	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	4.20	19.3	13.3	0.94	1/10/1	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.03	21.3	8.2	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.41	25.7	9.2	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.79	21.2	3.0	1.00	0/6/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.39	25.9	10.8	1.46	2/1/6	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 CWS · 4 MIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

7 R

10H · 1HR · 5BB · 7K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.444 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

MIN

4 R

12H · 2HR · 2BB · 7K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.385 · SLGe 0.528 · K% 17.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 7 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Colson Montgomery (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Sam Antonacci (LF) · 0-4 | BB, SB0-for-4

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Brooks Lee (3B) · 2-5 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR
Kody Clemens (2B) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Ryan Jeffers (C) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K