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today's slate

HOU @ NYM

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 823583free Saturday

refreshed 694h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citi Field

gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

77°F

humidity 82%

wind

7 mph

out to LF

precip

19%

overcast

park

NYM

open · HP→CF 21°

wind impact on total

+0.19 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Hunter BrownRHP · HOU	Christian ScottRHP · NYM
xERA 2026	3.78	3.97
xwOBA 2026	0.301	0.308
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.008	0.005
xERA 2025	3.14	—
xwOBA 2025	0.277	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.57	2.13
FIP 25-26	3.58	3.66
kwERA 25-26	3.29	3.18
K% 25-26	27.1%	28.5%
BB% 25-26	9.5%	10.0%
IP 25+26 combined	259.7	89.3
ERA actual 2026	3.51	3.73
ERA (L4)	3.74	6.30
WHIP (L4)	1.43	1.60
K% (L4)	22.8%	27.4%
BB% (L4)	14.1%	9.5%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	5.00
L4 window	08/05→08/22 (4 st)	08/05→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	104 (+2)	109 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.45 (+0.01)	3.34 (−0.34)
Arsenal RV/100	0.05	0.04

away arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.05

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.239
Sinker—+1.00xwOBA 0.310
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.279
Changeup—-1.70xwOBA 0.446
Slider—-1.50xwOBA 0.347

home arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.04

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.328
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.235
Cutter—+1.80xwOBA 0.338
Curveball—-4.20xwOBA 0.261
Split-Finger—-0.70xwOBA 0.445

away · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.914

Σ match

2.916

Σ FRV

-12.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.329	0.342	-2.1
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.454	0.472	-2.0
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.324	0.335	+0.5
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.274	0.280	-6.1
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.288	0.278	+3.8
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.302	0.288	+2.8
7	C	Yainer Diaz	0.303	0.294	-4.2
8	RF	Taylor Trammell	0.297	0.307	-1.4
9	LF	Nelson Velázquez	0.343	0.320	-3.9

home · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.879

Σ match

2.757

Σ FRV

+11.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.318	0.286	+5.6
2	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.342	0.332	-0.6
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.325	0.303	-0.9
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.341	0.320	+5.0
5	LF	Luis Robert Jr.	0.330	0.312	+1.7
6	1B	Jared Young	0.313	0.293	-1.2
7	2B	Marcus Semien	0.305	0.313	-5.9
8	DH	Brett Baty	0.306	0.307	-1.1
9	C	Luis Torrens	0.299	0.290	+9.2

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-4.2
framing-3.6
blocking-0.5
throwing-0.1

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Torrens

FRV+9.2
framing+5.4
blocking+1.4
throwing+2.4

HOU · Hunter Brown

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs ATH · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	4.45

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYM · Christian Scott

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs CWS · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	109
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	116
botOvr	—	—	64
SIERA	—	—	3.34

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.36–0.44]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Bryan Abreu (3.91)

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.28–0.49]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Jefry Yan (4.80)

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.74	36.2	8.7	0.91	19/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.79	29.0	16.6	0.92	7/10/21	stable
Steven Okert	SETUP	SU	3.27	25.8	5.5	1.01	0/19/1	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.64	22.3	5.5	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	3.93	24.8	10.0	1.68	1/8/6	ramping up
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.70	23.0	9.7	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	3.83	23.9	11.4	0.67	0/6/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.48	27.6	14.6	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	6.19	25.7	14.9	3.39	4/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.21	25.6	11.4	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.42	27.7	6.0	1.67	2/4/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	4.93	24.4	14.0	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.42	35.5	6.5	—	0/6/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.97	25.0	20.0	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	6.08	18.9	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 HOU · 1 NYM

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

HOU

3 R

4H · 0HR · 6BB · 8K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.133 · K% 22.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 14 K · relief 2.3 IP · 3 arms

NYM

1 R

5H · 0HR · 1BB · 14K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.188 · SLGe 0.194 · K% 43.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

HOU · standout lines

tough nights

Christian Walker (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Nelson Velázquez (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

NYM · standout lines

tough nights

A.J. Ewing (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Bo Bichette (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Luis Robert Jr. (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K