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today's slate

BOS @ NYY

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 823504free Saturday

refreshed 694h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 66%

wind

6 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

14%

clear

park

NYY

open · HP→CF 75°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Patrick SandovalLHP · BOS	Cam SchlittlerRHP · NYY
xERA 2026	4.91	2.91
xwOBA 2026	0.339	0.266
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.039	-0.011
xERA 2025	—	4.10
xwOBA 2025	—	0.314
Outs/TB 25-26	1.55	2.52
FIP 25-26	4.09	2.96
kwERA 25-26	3.90	2.70
K% 25-26	22.3%	29.8%
BB% 25-26	9.8%	7.3%
IP 25+26 combined	39.7	231.0
ERA actual 2026	4.54	2.16
ERA (L4)	5.66	2.91
WHIP (L4)	1.79	1.02
K% (L4)	23.7%	36.8%
BB% (L4)	10.3%	10.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.17	5.42
L4 window	07/29→08/22 (4 st)	07/29→08/15 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	97 (−6)	116 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.19 (+0.85)	3.38 (+0.46)
Arsenal RV/100	-1.40	1.05

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 -1.40

Slider—-2.60xwOBA 0.350
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.175
4-Seam Fastball—-1.70xwOBA 0.425
Sinker—-3.20xwOBA 0.475

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 1.05

4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.240
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.293
Sinker—+1.80xwOBA 0.260
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.343

away · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.932

Σ match

2.584

Σ FRV

+41.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Nick Sogard	0.323	0.285	+2.9
2	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.284	0.235	+15.5
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.352	0.305	+5.4
4	1B	Willson Contreras	0.379	0.326	+2.8
5	C	Adley Rutschman	0.340	0.299	+9.9
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.287	0.250	+4.6
7	DH	Mickey Gasper	0.355	0.318	-2.4
8	LF	Jarren Duran	0.298	0.282	+4.0
9	2B	Anthony Seigler	0.314	0.285	-1.2

home · NYY vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.852

Σ match

3.230

Σ FRV

+8.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0.305	0.336	+5.8
2	DH	Ben Rice	0.375	0.423	-4.6
3	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.350	0.407	+8.0
4	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.318	0.357	-5.0
5	CF	Trent Grisham	0.341	0.395	-5.0
6	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.292	0.318	-0.9
7	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.295	0.350	+4.0
8	3B	José Caballero	0.282	0.324	+0.5
9	C	Austin Wells	0.294	0.320	+5.5

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+9.9
framing+5.6
blocking+1.0
throwing+3.3

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.5
framing+5.1
blocking+1.5
throwing-1.2

BOS · Patrick Sandoval

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs SF · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	5.19

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Cam Schlittler

Last outing 2026-08-15 vs TOR · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	116
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	116
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.38

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.33–0.43]

0.089 R/PA · 0.126 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.20)

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.53]

0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Justin Topa (5.17)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.47	31.2	10.8	0.96	30/0/27	stable
Tyron Guerrero	SETUP	SU	2.53	23.8	4.1	1.03	0/17/2	ramping up
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.71	34.2	13.6	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.23	23.6	7.5	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.08	26.6	11.8	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.22	17.5	7.5	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	2.48	25.0	12.5	—	0/0/0	—

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.54	28.1	7.8	1.10	30/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.24	30.4	7.2	1.01	0/21/6	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.52	11.2	5.4	0.84	2/9/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.69	20.7	9.7	1.53	1/8/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.76	17.5	9.0	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Yerry De los Santos	MR	MR	4.36	16.5	10.1	1.73	0/0/1	ramping down
Michael Fulmer	unknown	LR	2.22	27.8	11.1	—	0/1/0	—
Justin Topa	unknown	MR	6.22	13.6	11.7	—	2/4/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 BOS · 1 NYY

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

0 R

5H · 0HR · 6BB · 9K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.233 · K% 24.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 2.7 IP · 4 arms

NYY

1 R

3H · 1HR · 4BB · 11K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.226 · SLGe 0.259 · K% 35.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 9 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Wilyer Abreu (RF) · 2-3 | 2 2B4 TB

tough nights

Nick Sogard (2B) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
Willson Contreras (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Adley Rutschman (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Paul Goldschmidt (1B) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Cody Bellinger (LF) · 0-40-for-4
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Austin Wells (C) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K