Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

AZ @ SF

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 823178free Saturday

refreshed 690h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 10:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

65°F

humidity 77%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

+0.25 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.25 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kohl DrakeLHP · AZ	Blade TidwellRHP · SF
xERA 2026	8.75	3.24
xwOBA 2026	0.430	0.280
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.033	-0.002
xERA 2025	—	5.62
xwOBA 2025	—	0.361
Outs/TB 25-26	1.35	2.30
FIP 25-26	5.48	4.75
kwERA 25-26	4.31	4.46
K% 25-26	16.9%	18.2%
BB% 25-26	7.8%	10.3%
IP 25+26 combined	16.7	47.7
ERA actual 2026	5.40	3.58
ERA (L4)	6.94	4.02
WHIP (L4)	1.71	1.15
K% (L4)	14.3%	22.6%
BB% (L4)	7.1%	12.9%
IP/gm (L4)	3.89	5.22
L4 window	07/26→08/06 (3 st)	08/10→08/22 (3 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	94 (−1)	100 (−10)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.70 (+0.32)	5.77 (+1.49)
Arsenal RV/100	0.99	0.68

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.99

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.427
Changeup—+2.50xwOBA 0.197

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.68

Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.183
4-Seam Fastball—-2.30xwOBA 0.409
Sinker—+4.70xwOBA 0.297
Slider—+3.60xwOBA 0.306

away · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.904

Σ match

2.729

Σ FRV

+19.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.332	0.307	+1.2
2	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.347	0.313	+3.9
3	DH	Gabriel Moreno	0.370	0.361	+7.8
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.328	0.315	+8.8
5	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.292	0.286	+1.9
6	1B	Tim Tawa	0.315	0.277	-1.4
7	C	James McCann	0.286	0.277	-6.0
8	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.302	0.284	+2.9
9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.332	0.308	+0.3

home · SF vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.714

Σ match

3.246

Σ FRV

-12.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jonah Cox	0.277	0.277	+0.5
2	1B	Rafael Devers	0.329	0.383	-4.2
3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	0.351	0.503	+0.7
4	C	Andrew Knizner	0.328	0.352	-1.9
5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.313	0.363	-5.9
6	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.261	0.340	-0.2
7	LF	Turner Hill	0.342	0.439	-0.2
8	SS	Christian Koss	0.234	0.261	+2.3
9	2B	Osleivis Basabe	0.279	0.327	-3.9

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

James McCann

FRV-6.0
framing-4.7
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.7

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner

FRV-1.9
framing-0.7
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.5

AZ · Kohl Drake

Last outing 2026-08-06 vs SD · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	89
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	5.70

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-26 → 2026-08-06. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Blade Tidwell

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs BOS · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	81
Pitching+	—	—	80
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	5.77

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Justin Martinez (5.40)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.49R / inningband [0.42–0.57]

0.116 R/PA · 0.164 R/out · worst: Anthony Molina (5.06)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Juan Morillo	SETUP	SU	2.48	28.6	8.6	0.92	2/17/9	stable
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	SU	2.55	30.3	6.9	0.83	4/15/6	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	3.06	18.2	5.3	0.93	1/8/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.67	23.2	7.0	0.93	2/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.89	14.8	4.4	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.42	20.4	10.4	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	2.68	29.0	16.1	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	4.74	16.7	16.7	—	0/0/0	—

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Hentges	MR	SU	3.41	22.7	14.9	0.79	0/10/2	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.60	28.3	11.0	0.88	3/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	SU	3.68	17.5	8.8	1.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Anthony Molina	MR	MR	4.47	8.6	5.7	1.67	0/0/2	insufficient data
Ryan Walker	MR	MR	5.04	15.6	11.3	0.98	3/4/10	stable
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	5.15	17.5	10.0	2.17	1/4/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	5.40	17.2	6.9	1.67	0/1/1	insufficient data
Spencer Bivens	MR	LR	7.08	27.8	16.7	1.00	0/1/1	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	MR	1.58	34.1	11.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

10 AZ · 6 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

10 R

12H · 3HR · 2BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.615 · K% 21.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 11 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

SF

6 R

5H · 2HR · 4BB · 11K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.282 · SLGe 0.375 · K% 28.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 10 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Lars Nootbaar (LF) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, KHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Corbin Carroll (RF) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR
Tim Tawa (1B) · 2-5 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Gabriel Moreno (DH) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
Jordan Lawlar (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

SF · standout lines

big nights

Bryce Eldridge (DH) · 2-5 | HR, 2B, 2 KHR
Christian Koss (SS) · 1-3 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Shay Whitcomb (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Osleivis Basabe (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4