Baseball Daily

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today's slate

PIT @ STL

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 823013free Saturday

refreshed 694h 33m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Busch Stadium

gametime 8:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 34%

wind

4 mph

in from LF

precip

clear

park

STL

open · HP→CF 4°

wind impact on total

-0.09 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jared JonesRHP · PIT	Quinn MathewsLHP · STL
xERA 2026	3.67	3.12
xwOBA 2026	0.297	0.275
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.021	0.076
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.85	1.75
FIP 25-26	4.15	3.65
kwERA 25-26	3.28	4.31
K% 25-26	26.6%	19.7%
BB% 25-26	9.0%	10.6%
IP 25+26 combined	68.0	14.0
ERA actual 2026	4.76	6.43
ERA (L4)	7.00	8.00
WHIP (L4)	1.61	1.78
K% (L4)	23.8%	23.8%
BB% (L4)	14.3%	9.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.50	4.50
L4 window	07/29→08/22 (4 st)	08/17→08/22 (2 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (+0)	86 (−17)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.42 (+0.66)	3.50 (−1.24)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.23	-0.50

away arsenal — PIT

RV/100 -0.23

4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.336
Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.246
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.288
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.319

home arsenal — STL

RV/100 -0.50

4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.353
Slider—+0.30xwOBA 0.199
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.290

away · PIT vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.867

Σ match

2.705

Σ FRV

-10.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jared Triolo	0.291	0.270	-0.3
2	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.339	0.313	-1.7
3	DH	Bryan Reynolds	0.350	0.343	-3.5
4	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.361	0.345	+0.3
5	2B	Nick Gonzales	0.321	0.316	-9.6
6	1B	Rafael Flores Jr.	0.340	0.310	-0.2
7	LF	Jake Mangum	0.285	0.268	+2.6
8	3B	Nick Yorke	0.295	0.290	-0.3
9	C	Henry Davis	0.285	0.250	+2.1

home · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.861

Σ match

2.740

Σ FRV

+13.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	JJ Wetherholt	0.355	0.352	+20.9
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.331	0.316	-4.0
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.383	0.372	+3.8
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.353	0.315	-6.7
5	2B	José Fermín	0.297	0.277	-3.1
6	CF	Nathan Church	0.286	0.274	+0.2
7	LF	Joshua Báez	0.301	0.288	-0.5
8	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.279	0.292	+0.1
9	C	Jimmy Crooks	0.276	0.255	+2.4

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Henry Davis

FRV+2.1
framing-0.1
blocking+0.3
throwing+1.9

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Jimmy Crooks

FRV+2.4
framing+3.8
blocking-1.3
throwing-0.2

PIT · Jared Jones

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs LAD · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	112
botOvr	—	—	61
SIERA	—	—	4.42

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

STL · Quinn Mathews

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs PHI · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	86
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	3.50

Last 2 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-22. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.42]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Camilo Doval (4.03)

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.37–0.56]

0.109 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.85)

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.31	28.6	10.1	0.99	14/9/21	stable
Kirby Yates	CLOSER	MR	3.34	27.7	10.2	0.87	3/0/15	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.69	27.0	7.1	1.05	1/15/4	stable
Evan Sisk	SETUP	MR	3.32	27.0	10.3	1.14	0/5/5	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.65	27.5	13.6	1.28	2/6/8	stable
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.28	39.4	10.0	0.97	6/9/7	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	MR	4.56	25.0	10.0	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.53	23.3	11.9	0.90	1/5/10	stable

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.63	23.0	9.8	0.99	34/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.83	15.0	8.5	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.57	23.0	10.7	0.98	2/20/7	stable
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.96	23.7	12.5	0.89	1/24/5	stable
Ryan Fernandez	MR	MR	3.13	30.3	9.2	1.21	0/1/4	ramping down
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.16	31.2	6.2	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	4.24	16.0	11.5	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Caleb Ferguson	MOP_UP	MR	4.91	20.8	12.8	0.97	1/4/2	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 PIT · 4 STL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PIT

1 R

6H · 0HR · 2BB · 11K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.265 · SLGe 0.194 · K% 32.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

STL

4 R

8H · 1HR · 1BB · 8K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 22.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

PIT · standout lines

tough nights

Esmerlyn Valdez (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Rafael Flores Jr. (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

STL · standout lines

big nights

Jordan Walker (RF) · 3-4 | K, 2 R3 H
Jimmy Crooks (C) · 1-3 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

JJ Wetherholt (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Iván Herrera (DH) · 0-40-for-4
Alec Burleson (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4