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today's slate

SD @ TB

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 822935free Saturday

refreshed 694h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field

gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 80%

wind

2 mph

in from RF

precip

13%

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.04 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Casey MizeRHP · SD	Shane McClanahanLHP · TB
xERA 2026	3.49	4.14
xwOBA 2026	0.290	0.314
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.006	-0.044
xERA 2025	3.66	—
xwOBA 2025	0.298	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.92	2.54
FIP 25-26	3.63	3.32
kwERA 25-26	3.43	3.69
K% 25-26	22.3%	22.3%
BB% 25-26	5.9%	8.1%
IP 25+26 combined	253.7	107.3
ERA actual 2026	3.44	3.10
ERA (L4)	7.00	3.93
WHIP (L4)	1.56	1.15
K% (L4)	12.5%	18.2%
BB% (L4)	8.8%	7.8%
IP/gm (L4)	4.50	4.58
L4 window	08/05→08/22 (4 st)	07/19→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (−2)	102 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.56 (+1.52)	4.42 (+0.35)
Arsenal RV/100	0.42	0.97

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.42

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.272
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.330
Split-Finger—-0.20xwOBA 0.264
Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.319
Slurve—-0.10xwOBA 0.277

home arsenal — TB

RV/100 0.97

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.387
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.223
Slider—+1.10xwOBA 0.328
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.307

away · SD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.841

Σ match

2.878

Σ FRV

+33.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.376	0.397	+5.2
2	LF	Luis Rengifo	0.304	0.311	-2.2
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.330	0.337	+4.9
4	1B	Ty France	0.332	0.326	+8.3
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.332	0.325	+8.5
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.324	0.323	+4.6
7	DH	Austin Hays	0.282	0.289	-2.0
8	C	Freddy Fermin	0.277	0.277	+8.0
9	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.284	0.294	-1.9

home · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.755

Σ match

2.569

Σ FRV

+5.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.354	0.347	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.347	0.308	-2.2
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.365	0.348	-11.4
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.319	0.285	+1.1
5	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.263	0.250	+2.7
6	RF	Jonny DeLuca	0.276	0.261	+7.5
7	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.262	0.242	+8.8
8	2B	Jorge Mateo	0.322	0.303	+1.2
9	SS	Taylor Walls	0.247	0.224	-2.0

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Freddy Fermin

FRV+8.0
framing+2.5
blocking+1.9
throwing+3.6

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+1.1
framing+0.0
blocking-0.3
throwing+0.6

SD · Casey Mize

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs MIN · 2.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	5.56

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TB · Shane McClanahan

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs BAL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	88
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.42

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-24 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.59)

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.25–0.50]

0.089 R/PA · 0.126 R/out · worst: Steven Matz (4.21)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.86	47.7	9.3	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.38	29.8	6.8	1.16	2/21/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.35	22.3	8.0	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.41	26.5	6.9	1.09	2/10/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	3.97	15.0	8.2	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.08	24.8	12.4	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.27	26.3	13.9	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.94	22.0	10.4	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	2.88	28.4	7.8	0.96	38/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.16	21.1	3.9	1.10	4/27/9	stable
Garrett Cleavinger	SETUP	MR	3.53	31.1	10.2	0.88	2/23/3	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.57	25.1	6.4	1.26	5/14/13	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.55	18.2	5.7	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.41	17.4	7.4	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.30	32.5	5.1	1.11	0/9/5	stable
Manuel Rodríguez	unknown	MR	0.08	60.0	20.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 SD · 9 TB

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

4 R

4H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.200 · SLGe 0.219 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

TB

9 R

11H · 2HR · 2BB · 6K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.350 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 15.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Jackson Merrill (CF) · 2-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Luis Rengifo (3B) · 0-40-for-4
Manny Machado (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Ty France (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K

TB · standout lines

big nights

Yandy Díaz (DH) · 2-5 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR
Cedric Mullins (CF) · 1-4 | HR, 2 RBI, 2 RHR