Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SEA @ TOR

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 822769free Saturday

refreshed 694h 35m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rogers Centre

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

67°F

humidity 64%

wind

2 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

TOR

retractable · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

neutralnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Emerson HancockRHP · SEA	Dylan CeaseRHP · TOR
xERA 2026	3.86	2.68
xwOBA 2026	0.304	0.255
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.009	-0.009
xERA 2025	5.51	3.46
xwOBA 2025	0.358	0.290
Outs/TB 25-26	1.95	2.58
FIP 25-26	4.32	3.01
kwERA 25-26	3.76	2.72
K% 25-26	20.4%	32.7%
BB% 25-26	6.8%	10.4%
IP 25+26 combined	223.7	312.3
ERA actual 2026	3.37	2.37
ERA (L4)	3.57	2.16
WHIP (L4)	1.41	0.96
K% (L4)	19.2%	35.7%
BB% (L4)	5.1%	13.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.67	6.25
L4 window	07/22→08/15 (4 st)	08/06→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	98 (−2)	102 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.60 (+0.84)	3.01 (+0.01)
Arsenal RV/100	0.65	1.42

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.65

4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.319
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.370
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.151
Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.303
Changeup—-4.70xwOBA 0.275
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.240

home arsenal — TOR

RV/100 1.42

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.285
Slider—+3.30xwOBA 0.207
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.176
Curveball—-0.90xwOBA 0.362
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.328
Sweeper—-1.30xwOBA 0.243

away · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.874

Σ match

2.413

Σ FRV

-17.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.348	0.282	-6.9
2	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.355	0.305	+0.3
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.344	0.289	-0.6
4	1B	Josh Naylor	0.318	0.259	+2.4
5	C	Cal Raleigh	0.304	0.244	-0.2
6	2B	Cole Young	0.316	0.262	-2.2
7	RF	Taylor Ward	0.339	0.277	-1.6
8	3B	J.P. Crawford	0.324	0.265	-6.1
9	SS	Brock Rodden	0.226	0.229	-2.2

home · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.679

Σ match

2.600

Σ FRV

+23.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.261	0.268	+3.0
2	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.290	0.269	+6.6
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.332	0.326	+3.6
4	DH	George Springer	0.304	0.306	-0.3
5	LF	Jesús Sánchez	0.332	0.300	-8.2
6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.314	0.314	-3.2
7	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.267	0.263	+14.1
8	2B	Ernie Clement	0.267	0.261	-3.8
9	C	Brandon Valenzuela	0.312	0.294	+11.2

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-0.2
framing-1.2
blocking+3.3
throwing-2.3

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Brandon Valenzuela

FRV+11.2
framing+7.7
blocking-0.4
throwing+4.1

SEA · Emerson Hancock

Last outing 2026-08-15 vs HOU · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	94
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.60

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-29 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TOR · Dylan Cease

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs NYY · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.01

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Gabe Speier (3.96)

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.54]

0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: CJ Van Eyk (5.40)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.08	37.7	9.8	0.93	24/0/29	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	3.94	20.7	8.7	0.82	1/17/5	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.98	18.1	5.8	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	3.98	23.6	7.1	0.94	0/25/2	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	4.82	27.5	13.5	0.89	12/5/18	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	LR	3.81	27.3	9.1	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	1.00	33.3	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.81	31.4	6.8	1.11	30/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.34	26.5	6.1	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.24	12.9	7.8	0.97	4/28/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.75	25.2	10.2	0.76	1/14/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	MR	4.30	23.1	13.2	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	SU	2.83	22.3	6.0	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
CJ Van Eyk	MR	MR	6.08	3.2	3.2	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	6.03	31.7	19.8	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.18	14.7	8.7	4.62	0/0/0	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 SEA · 8 TOR

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

1 R

5H · 1HR · 4BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.290 · K% 25.7

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 8 ER · 3 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

TOR

8 R

12H · 3HR · 2BB · 3K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.676 · K% 7.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Dominic Canzone (DH) · 2-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Josh Naylor (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Cal Raleigh (C) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
J.P. Crawford (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Nathan Lukes (RF) · 1-4 | HR, BB, RBIHR
George Springer (DH) · 4-4 | HR, 2B, RBIHR · 4 H · 8 TB
Kazuma Okamoto (3B) · 2-3 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Ernie Clement (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4