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today's slate

MIA @ WSH

Friday · August 28, 2026·full·gamePk 822691free Saturday

refreshed 694h 36m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Nationals Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 72%

wind

3 mph

in from LF

precip

partly cloudy

park

WSH

open · HP→CF 30°

wind impact on total

-0.07 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Eury PérezRHP · MIA	Jackson KentLHP · WSH
xERA 2026	3.67	6.09
xwOBA 2026	0.297	0.372
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.013	0.016
xERA 2025	3.23	—
xwOBA 2025	0.281	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.41	1.68
FIP 25-26	3.66	4.54
kwERA 25-26	3.29	4.81
K% 25-26	26.9%	23.0%
BB% 25-26	9.3%	18.0%
IP 25+26 combined	223.0	12.3
ERA actual 2026	3.17	8.03
ERA (L4)	1.96	8.64
WHIP (L4)	1.17	2.16
K% (L4)	27.2%	19.0%
BB% (L4)	13.0%	14.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.75	4.17
L4 window	08/05→08/22 (4 st)	08/18→08/23 (2 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	111 (−4)	84 (+6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.98 (+0.11)	5.82 (+0.53)
Arsenal RV/100	0.50	-1.48

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.50

4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.309
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.328
Slider—+1.10xwOBA 0.294
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.218
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.264
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.330

home arsenal — WSH

RV/100 -1.48

4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.380
Changeup—-2.00xwOBA 0.365
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.367

away · MIA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.794

Σ match

3.338

Σ FRV

+9.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.350	0.447	+0.3
2	DH	Agustín Ramírez	0.279	0.317	-4.1
3	SS	Otto Lopez	0.326	0.408	+9.6
4	RF	Javier Sanoja	0.278	0.335	+3.6
5	2B	Xavier Edwards	0.316	0.383	-2.3
6	1B	Kyle Stowers	0.330	0.374	-1.3
7	3B	Leo Jiménez	0.318	0.362	-4.7
8	CF	Esteury Ruiz	0.299	0.361	-2.0
9	C	Joe Mack	0.298	0.350	+10.7

home · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.868

Σ match

2.801

Σ FRV

+0.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	CJ Abrams	0.336	0.325	-11.6
2	1B	Abimelec Ortiz	0.324	0.326	-0.6
3	RF	Dylan Crews	0.319	0.303	+1.4
4	LF	Daylen Lile	0.322	0.301	+2.4
5	3B	Brady House	0.331	0.309	-2.1
6	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.296	0.279	+3.0
7	C	Harry Ford	0.250	0.268	-0.0
8	DH	Andrés Chaparro	0.371	0.382	-1.8
9	CF	Jacob Young	0.319	0.307	+9.6

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+10.7
framing+6.2
blocking+0.9
throwing+3.6

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Harry Ford

FRV-0.0
framing+0.1
blocking+0.5
throwing-0.6

MIA · Eury Pérez

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs WSH · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	111
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

WSH · Jackson Kent

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs MIA · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	84
Location+	—	—	93
Pitching+	—	—	82
botOvr	—	—	43
SIERA	—	—	5.82

Last 2 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-23. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.35–0.53]

0.103 R/PA · 0.146 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (4.88)

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.32–0.53]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (5.40)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	SU	2.94	25.8	13.1	0.98	2/14/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.41	28.7	10.8	1.06	1/22/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.34	21.3	16.4	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.14	15.9	11.6	0.89	1/1/2	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.29	16.3	11.9	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.56	24.6	4.9	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	1.74	18.2	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tom Cosgrove	SETUP	MR	4.08	20.3	6.2	1.17	1/3/1	ramping up
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	4.13	22.2	10.5	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	LR	4.16	20.9	9.4	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.20	23.0	15.8	0.96	12/7/11	stable
Will Dion	MR	SU	3.83	29.5	6.5	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Max Kranick	MOP_UP	MR	5.26	12.7	9.9	0.67	0/1/0	insufficient data
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	3.83	18.2	18.2	—	0/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	11.08	23.1	23.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 MIA · 9 WSH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

2 R

5H · 1HR · 5BB · 4K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.300 · K% 11.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 8 K · relief 5.0 IP · 3 arms

WSH

9 R

7H · 2HR · 5BB · 8K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.548 · K% 22.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Brady House (3B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR
Harry Ford (C) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR