Baseball Daily

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today's slate

LAD @ ATL

Thursday · August 27, 2026·full·gamePk 824879free Saturday

refreshed 719h 33m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 79%

wind

1 mph

out to CF

precip

13%

partly cloudy

park

ATL

open · HP→CF 63°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone calm

Calm air — wind not a factor.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Yoshinobu YamamotoRHP · LAD	Chris SaleLHP · ATL
xERA 2026	3.01	3.05
xwOBA 2026	0.270	0.272
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.024	-0.010
xERA 2025	2.71	2.84
xwOBA 2025	0.258	0.264
Outs/TB 25-26	2.86	2.52
FIP 25-26	3.09	2.44
kwERA 25-26	3.01	2.31
K% 25-26	27.3%	31.5%
BB% 25-26	7.4%	5.7%
IP 25+26 combined	325.3	260.7
ERA actual 2026	2.61	2.20
ERA (L4)	1.75	2.62
WHIP (L4)	0.97	0.83
K% (L4)	22.8%	40.7%
BB% (L4)	8.9%	3.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.42	6.00
L4 window	07/25→08/14 (4 st)	07/23→08/14 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	102 (+0)	124 (+5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.70 (+1.22)	1.79 (−1.02)
Arsenal RV/100	1.43	1.29

away arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.43

Split-Finger—+0.80xwOBA 0.211
4-Seam Fastball—+2.40xwOBA 0.344
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.292
Sinker—+2.40xwOBA 0.246
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.309
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.244

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 1.29

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.303
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.224
Changeup—+1.50xwOBA 0.309
Sinker—+1.90xwOBA 0.308

away · LAD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.783

Σ match

2.459

Σ FRV

+9.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	0.407	0.345	—
2	CF	Tommy Edman	0.318	0.280	+2.1
3	SS	Mookie Betts	0.327	0.280	+7.7
4	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.371	0.316	+3.7
5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.313	0.279	-4.1
6	2B	Miguel Rojas	0.321	0.286	+0.9
7	RF	Alex Call	0.281	0.246	+1.0
8	3B	Enrique Hernández	0.258	0.208	-1.0
9	C	Ben Rortvedt	0.187	0.218	-0.5

home · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.815

Σ match

2.565

Σ FRV

+7.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Drake Baldwin	0.372	0.334	-0.9
2	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.287	0.259	-2.4
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.364	0.323	+6.3
4	LF	Mauricio Dubón	0.305	0.275	+4.2
5	CF	Michael Harris II	0.344	0.309	+10.0
6	DH	Lane Thomas	0.317	0.290	-4.1
7	RF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.311	0.276	-1.5
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.299	0.268	-1.2
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.216	0.232	-3.2

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Ben Rortvedt

FRV-0.5
framing-0.4
blocking-0.2
throwing+0.2

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Drake Baldwin

FRV-0.9
framing+1.5
blocking+0.3
throwing-2.7

LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Last outing 2026-08-14 vs MIL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.70

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-14. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATL · Chris Sale

Last outing 2026-08-14 vs AZ · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	124
Location+	—	—	116
Pitching+	—	—	131
botOvr	—	—	63
SIERA	—	—	1.79

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-29 → 2026-08-14. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.33–0.40]

0.085 R/PA · 0.121 R/out · worst: Alex Vesia (3.69)

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.34R / inningband [0.23–0.46]

0.081 R/PA · 0.115 R/out · worst: Ray Kerr (5.40)

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.35	31.0	5.7	0.94	19/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.68	27.7	10.8	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.38	29.9	15.7	0.76	3/17/6	stable
Kyle Hurt	SETUP	MR	3.81	28.9	12.2	1.01	1/9/10	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.38	31.0	8.5	1.01	1/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	SU	3.51	26.5	8.8	1.06	1/6/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	MR	4.94	25.0	6.9	1.00	0/5/3	stable

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.32	25.9	8.0	1.04	28/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.04	32.0	6.6	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.44	31.0	7.4	1.20	2/15/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.34	26.4	8.0	1.18	1/12/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.69	19.7	6.7	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	LR	2.92	24.0	8.7	1.87	1/0/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.36	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 LAD · 1 ATL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAD

0 R

5H · 0HR · 0BB · 11K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.188 · K% 32.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 1.7 IP · 3 arms

ATL

1 R

4H · 1HR · 1BB · 11K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.179 · SLGe 0.259 · K% 39.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 11 K · relief 0.0 IP · 1 arms

LAD · standout lines

tough nights

Shohei Ohtani (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Tommy Edman (CF) · 0-3 | HBP, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
Teoscar Hernández (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Drake Baldwin (C) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Austin Riley (3B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K