Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

MIL @ NYM

Thursday · August 27, 2026·full·gamePk 823581free Saturday

refreshed 719h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citi Field

gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

73°F

humidity 95%

wind

2 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

33%

overcast

park

NYM

open · HP→CF 21°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL	Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM
xERA 2026	1.98	4.81
xwOBA 2026	0.219	0.336
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	0.007
xERA 2025	3.41	3.99
xwOBA 2025	0.288	0.310
Outs/TB 25-26	3.13	1.67
FIP 25-26	2.60	4.47
kwERA 25-26	1.89	3.20
K% 25-26	37.0%	25.0%
BB% 25-26	7.7%	6.6%
IP 25+26 combined	211.0	177.7
ERA actual 2026	1.68	4.31
ERA (L4)	2.62	2.84
WHIP (L4)	0.62	1.03
K% (L4)	42.0%	25.0%
BB% (L4)	3.4%	6.0%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	6.33
L4 window	07/26→08/15 (4 st)	07/24→08/15 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	132 (+4)	102 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	1.26 (−0.88)	4.06 (+0.21)
Arsenal RV/100	1.99	-0.53

away arsenal — MIL

RV/100 1.99

4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.225
Cutter—+3.30xwOBA 0.250
Slider—+2.40xwOBA 0.221
Curveball—+1.70xwOBA 0.160

home arsenal — NYM

RV/100 -0.53

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.329
Sweeper—-2.10xwOBA 0.285
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.390
Cutter—-1.80xwOBA 0.411
Changeup—-2.40xwOBA 0.395

away · MIL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.841

Σ match

3.133

Σ FRV

-3.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.338	0.375	+3.8
2	CF	Luis Lara	0.322	0.341	+1.0
3	DH	William Contreras	0.337	0.357	-2.6
4	1B	Andrew Vaughn	0.339	0.379	-5.9
5	C	Gary Sánchez	0.348	0.413	-4.7
6	3B	Joey Ortiz	0.294	0.325	+10.2
7	RF	Sal Frelick	0.282	0.302	-2.3
8	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.306	0.330	+3.1
9	2B	David Hamilton	0.275	0.312	-6.1

home · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.805

Σ match

2.058

Σ FRV

+1.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.318	0.250	+5.8
2	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.346	0.246	-0.8
3	RF	Carson Benge	0.343	0.255	+4.9
4	LF	Luis Robert Jr.	0.330	0.232	+1.7
5	1B	Jared Young	0.314	0.220	+0.3
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.306	0.228	-5.7
7	3B	Brett Baty	0.307	0.222	-1.2
8	DH	Christopher Morel	0.215	0.185	-2.7
9	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.326	0.219	-1.2

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

Gary Sánchez

FRV-4.7
framing-1.8
blocking-1.8
throwing-0.0

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV-1.2
framing+0.1
blocking-1.9
throwing+0.6

MIL · Jacob Misiorowski

Last outing 2026-08-15 vs LAD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	132
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	141
botOvr	—	—	71
SIERA	—	—	1.26

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYM · Sean Manaea

Last outing 2026-08-15 vs WSH · 6.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.06

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-29 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.46]

0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: DL Hall (4.20)

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.30–0.52]

0.096 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Xzavion Curry (4.86)

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.73	28.5	7.0	0.97	24/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.92	31.7	11.2	1.23	2/12/5	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	MR	4.30	21.9	10.0	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Bryse Wilson	BULK	LR	2.92	20.7	1.5	2.73	0/0/3	ramping down
Chad Patrick	SWING	SU	3.78	21.8	9.3	2.46	5/9/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.48	20.5	7.8	1.61	3/8/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.91	26.5	16.5	1.29	0/5/5	stable

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	6.19	25.7	14.9	3.39	4/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.34	25.1	11.7	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.43	27.7	6.0	1.67	2/4/2	insufficient data
Xzavion Curry	MR	MR	4.76	14.9	10.4	1.50	0/0/4	ramping up
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	4.93	24.4	14.0	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.42	35.5	6.5	—	0/6/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.97	25.0	20.0	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	6.08	18.9	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

8 MIL · 2 NYM

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIL

8 R

12H · 2HR · 2BB · 7K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.372 · SLGe 0.553 · K% 16.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

NYM

2 R

3H · 0HR · 3BB · 9K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.182 · SLGe 0.133 · K% 27.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 7 K · relief 3.3 IP · 3 arms

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Jackson Chourio (LF) · 4-5 | 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R2-HR night · 4 H · 10 TB · 4 RBI
Joey Ortiz (3B) · 2-5 | 3B, R4 TB

tough nights

William Contreras (DH) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Gary Sánchez (C) · 0-5 | RBI0-for-5
Sal Frelick (RF) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K

NYM · standout lines

tough nights

A.J. Ewing (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Francisco Lindor (SS) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Carson Benge (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K