Baseball Daily

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today's slate

HOU @ NYY

Thursday · August 27, 2026·full·gamePk 823503free Saturday

refreshed 719h 35m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

73°F

humidity 91%

wind

7 mph

in from LF

precip

32%

overcast

park

NYY

open · HP→CF 75°

wind impact on total

-0.13 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Short RF porch is the story regardless of wind; cross winds barely matter, wind-out to RF supercharges short HR_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Hayden WesneskiRHP · HOU	Gerrit ColeRHP · NYY
xERA 2026	3.91	3.29
xwOBA 2026	0.306	0.282
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.000	0.003
xERA 2025	4.30	—
xwOBA 2025	0.321	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.90	2.04
FIP 25-26	4.26	3.28
kwERA 25-26	3.68	2.85
K% 25-26	20.9%	26.6%
BB% 25-26	6.6%	5.3%
IP 25+26 combined	59.7	92.7
ERA actual 2026	4.23	3.11
ERA (L4)	6.55	1.46
WHIP (L4)	1.36	1.05
K% (L4)	21.3%	26.5%
BB% (L4)	6.4%	7.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	6.17
L4 window	08/10→08/15 (2 st)	07/28→08/14 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−4)	99 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.20 (+0.65)	3.53 (+0.14)
Arsenal RV/100	0.26	0.77

away arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.26

Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.236
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.339
Sinker—-1.50xwOBA 0.279
Cutter—-3.00xwOBA 0.400
Changeup—+4.20xwOBA 0.207

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 0.77

4-Seam Fastball—+1.90xwOBA 0.273
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.267
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.260
Curveball—-1.50xwOBA 0.308
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.546

away · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.897

Σ match

2.654

Σ FRV

-6.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.327	0.304	-1.9
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.457	0.424	-2.0
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.324	0.285	+0.5
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.274	0.250	-6.2
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.287	0.257	+4.1
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.301	0.270	+3.0
7	C	Yainer Diaz	0.305	0.275	-4.3
8	LF	Taylor Trammell	0.299	0.284	-1.5
9	RF	Cam Smith	0.323	0.305	+2.2

home · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.906

Σ match

2.762

Σ FRV

+6.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Trent Grisham	0.343	0.320	-5.1
2	DH	Ben Rice	0.374	0.360	-4.1
3	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.353	0.362	+0.2
4	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.349	0.305	+7.8
5	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.285	0.280	-0.4
6	RF	Spencer Jones	0.331	0.310	-1.1
7	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.294	0.284	+3.9
8	C	Austin Wells	0.297	0.292	+5.4
9	3B	José Caballero	0.280	0.250	+0.2

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-4.3
framing-3.6
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.1

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.4
framing+5.1
blocking+1.5
throwing-1.2

HOU · Hayden Wesneski

Last outing 2026-08-15 vs SEA · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	5.20

Last 2 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-15. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Gerrit Cole

Last outing 2026-08-14 vs TOR · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.53

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-14. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.36–0.44]

0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Bryan Abreu (3.91)

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.35–0.54]

0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Justin Topa (5.27)

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.82	35.5	8.9	0.91	19/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.79	29.0	16.6	0.92	7/10/21	stable
Steven Okert	SETUP	SU	3.28	26.2	5.6	1.01	0/18/1	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.64	22.3	5.5	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	4.02	24.4	10.2	1.68	1/7/6	ramping up
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.70	23.0	9.7	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	3.83	23.9	11.4	0.67	0/6/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.48	27.6	14.6	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.54	28.1	7.8	1.10	30/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.24	30.4	7.2	1.01	0/21/6	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.52	11.2	5.4	0.84	2/9/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.69	20.7	9.7	1.53	1/8/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.76	17.5	9.0	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Yerry De los Santos	MR	MR	3.81	16.0	10.7	1.73	0/0/1	ramping down
Michael Fulmer	unknown	LR	2.22	27.8	11.1	—	0/1/0	—
Justin Topa	unknown	MR	6.45	13.0	12.0	—	2/4/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 HOU · 1 NYY

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

HOU

5 R

9H · 2HR · 2BB · 8K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.432 · K% 19.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

NYY

1 R

5H · 0HR · 2BB · 11K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 32.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 8 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Jeremy Peña (SS) · 1-4 | HR, HBP, 2 KHR
Christian Walker (1B) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR · 3 H · 7 TB

tough nights

Yordan Alvarez (DH) · 0-4 | HBP, 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Jose Altuve (2B) · 0-40-for-4
Daulton Varsho (CF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K

NYY · standout lines

tough nights

Trent Grisham (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Luis García Jr. (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Austin Wells (C) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K