Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

AZ @ SF

Thursday · August 27, 2026·full·gamePk 823179free Saturday

refreshed 715h 21m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 9:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

69°F

humidity 52%

wind

15 mph

out to RF

precip

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

+0.48 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.48 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jose CabreraRHP · AZ	Landen RouppRHP · SF
xERA 2026	5.38	3.75
xwOBA 2026	0.353	0.300
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.002	0.000
xERA 2025	—	4.24
xwOBA 2025	—	0.319
Outs/TB 25-26	1.66	2.13
FIP 25-26	5.45	3.76
kwERA 25-26	4.66	3.99
K% 25-26	14.8%	22.1%
BB% 25-26	8.6%	10.4%
IP 25+26 combined	17.7	241.3
ERA actual 2026	5.60	4.34
ERA (L4)	7.71	6.52
WHIP (L4)	1.61	1.66
K% (L4)	13.6%	16.5%
BB% (L4)	9.1%	16.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	4.83
L4 window	06/27→07/08 (2 st)	07/28→08/14 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	90 (−3)	99 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.20 (+0.03)	6.53 (+2.19)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.90	0.30

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 -0.90

Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.373
4-Seam Fastball—+2.40xwOBA 0.509
Curveball—-2.90xwOBA 0.168
Sinker—-9.60xwOBA 0.416

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.30

Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.394
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.242
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.249
Cutter—-0.40xwOBA 0.306
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.193

away · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.863

Σ match

2.805

Σ FRV

+26.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Lars Nootbaar	0.334	0.328	+1.2
2	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.348	0.344	+3.9
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.367	0.359	+7.7
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.326	0.309	+8.8
5	LF	Max Kepler	0.273	0.248	-1.2
6	1B	Tim Tawa	0.317	0.331	-2.1
7	3B	Jose Fernandez	0.283	0.276	+1.2
8	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.305	0.312	+2.8
9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.310	0.297	+4.6

home · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.707

Σ match

3.362

Σ FRV

+0.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Drew Gilbert	0.325	0.439	+2.1
2	1B	Rafael Devers	0.329	0.445	-4.3
3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	0.352	0.433	+0.7
4	CF	Jonah Cox	0.272	0.315	+0.5
5	LF	Turner Hill	0.368	0.410	-0.4
6	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.278	0.344	+0.4
7	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.312	0.373	-0.6
8	SS	Christian Koss	0.234	0.296	+2.4
9	2B	Nate Furman	0.237	0.308	-0.6

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.7
framing+4.3
blocking+1.2
throwing+2.2

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-0.6
framing-1.7
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.9

AZ · Jose Cabrera

Last outing 2026-07-08 vs SD · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	81
Pitching+	—	—	75
botOvr	—	—	41
SIERA	—	—	5.20

Last 2 starts: 2026-06-27 → 2026-07-08. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-07-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Landen Roupp

Last outing 2026-08-14 vs COL · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	6.53

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-14. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.30–0.50]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Juan Burgos (5.40)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.49R / inningband [0.42–0.56]

0.116 R/PA · 0.165 R/out · worst: Anthony Molina (5.06)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Juan Morillo	SETUP	SU	2.49	28.6	8.6	0.92	2/17/9	stable
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	SU	2.55	30.3	6.9	0.83	4/15/6	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	3.10	18.0	5.3	0.93	1/8/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.62	23.9	6.8	0.93	2/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.95	14.7	4.5	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.42	20.4	10.4	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Juan Burgos	MR	MR	3.90	0.0	0.0	1.33	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	2.69	29.0	16.1	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	4.74	16.7	16.7	—	0/0/0	—

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Hentges	MR	SU	3.41	22.7	14.9	0.79	0/10/2	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.60	28.3	11.0	0.88	3/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	SU	3.68	17.5	8.8	1.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Anthony Molina	MR	MR	4.47	8.6	5.7	1.67	0/0/2	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	5.10	18.2	9.1	2.17	1/3/0	insufficient data
Ryan Walker	MR	MR	5.18	15.4	11.8	0.98	3/4/10	stable
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	5.40	17.2	6.9	1.67	0/1/1	insufficient data
Spencer Bivens	MR	LR	7.08	27.8	16.7	1.00	0/1/1	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	MR	1.70	34.2	13.2	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 AZ · 6 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

1 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 6K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

SF

6 R

7H · 1HR · 2BB · 6K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.294 · SLGe 0.393 · K% 17.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Gabriel Moreno (C) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Corbin Carroll (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Tim Tawa (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Ildemaro Vargas (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

SF · standout lines

big nights

Drew Gilbert (RF) · 1-3 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Drew Cavanaugh (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4