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today's slate

KC @ TOR

Thursday · August 27, 2026·full·gamePk 822771free Saturday

refreshed 719h 36m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rogers Centre

gametime 7:07 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 60%

wind

10 mph

in from RF

precip

partly cloudy

park

TOR

retractable · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Noah CameronLHP · KC	Spencer ArrighettiRHP · TOR
xERA 2026	4.11	5.11
xwOBA 2026	0.313	0.345
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.017	-0.023
xERA 2025	4.07	5.44
xwOBA 2025	0.313	0.356
Outs/TB 25-26	2.18	2.19
FIP 25-26	3.87	5.22
kwERA 25-26	3.81	4.32
K% 25-26	20.9%	21.9%
BB% 25-26	7.7%	12.9%
IP 25+26 combined	281.7	126.7
ERA actual 2026	4.02	4.73
ERA (L4)	3.90	7.31
WHIP (L4)	0.87	1.56
K% (L4)	18.7%	16.2%
BB% (L4)	5.6%	17.6%
IP/gm (L4)	6.92	4.00
L4 window	07/19→08/16 (4 st)	07/03→07/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (+4)	99 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.69 (−0.46)	6.03 (+1.31)
Arsenal RV/100	0.42	-0.19

away arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.42

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.387
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.274
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.318
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.220
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.332
Sinker—-4.10xwOBA 0.438

home arsenal — TOR

RV/100 -0.19

Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.277
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.397
Sweeper—-0.80xwOBA 0.277
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.461
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.346
Cutter—-0.80xwOBA 0.390

away · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.776

Σ match

3.069

Σ FRV

+9.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.288	0.313	+1.5
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.381	0.418	+18.0
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.358	0.387	-5.3
4	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.330	0.360	+2.9
5	DH	Salvador Perez	0.302	0.344	-9.3
6	2B	Isaac Collins	0.301	0.336	+0.6
7	LF	John Rave	0.340	0.369	+0.6
8	3B	Josh Rojas	0.207	0.251	-2.4
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.269	0.292	+3.3

home · TOR vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.754

Σ match

2.774

Σ FRV

+16.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Charles McAdoo	0.276	0.288	+0.4
2	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.333	0.340	+5.1
3	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.310	0.325	+8.8
4	DH	George Springer	0.300	0.321	-0.3
5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.314	0.307	-3.2
6	SS	Ernie Clement	0.267	0.259	-3.9
7	LF	Daz Cameron	0.370	0.337	-0.8
8	CF	Myles Straw	0.294	0.296	+3.7
9	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.290	0.301	+6.6

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.5
framing+2.3
blocking-2.9
throwing+2.2

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+8.8
framing+6.1
blocking+3.2
throwing-0.6

KC · Noah Cameron

Last outing 2026-08-16 vs LAA · 9.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	112
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.69

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-05 → 2026-08-16. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TOR · Spencer Arrighetti

Last outing 2026-07-24 vs CWS · 1.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	81
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	6.03

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-08 → 2026-07-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-07-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.44–0.52]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Connor Thomas (5.18)

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.38–0.53]

0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Simeon Woods Richardson (5.24)

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.36	23.6	11.6	1.03	10/3/20	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	SU	4.90	18.0	11.0	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	9.08	12.7	10.9	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.27	25.6	9.0	1.06	5/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.77	23.7	13.6	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Craig Kimbrel	MR	MR	4.15	21.9	11.2	1.03	1/1/15	stable
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.76	20.0	12.9	—	3/4/0	—

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.81	31.4	6.8	1.11	30/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.34	26.5	6.1	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.24	12.9	7.8	0.97	4/28/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.75	25.2	10.2	0.76	1/14/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	MR	4.33	22.7	13.0	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	SU	2.83	22.3	6.0	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Chad Dallas	MR	MR	4.14	21.3	12.8	2.33	0/1/0	insufficient data
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	6.03	31.7	19.8	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Simeon Woods Richardson	unknown	LR	5.58	13.3	11.9	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

13 KC · 2 TOR

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

KC

13 R

16H · 3HR · 6BB · 9K · 24LOB

OBPe 0.449 · SLGe 0.674 · K% 18.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

TOR

2 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 3K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.314 · SLGe 0.406 · K% 8.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 12 ER · 9 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

KC · standout lines

big nights

Carter Jensen (C) · 1-2 | HR, 3 BB, KHR
Jac Caglianone (RF) · 5-6 | HR, 2B, KHR · 5 H · 9 TB · 6 RBI
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B) · 2-5 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

John Rave (CF) · 0-50-for-5

TOR · standout lines

big nights

George Springer (DH) · 2-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Daz Cameron (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4