Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

COL @ WSH

Thursday · August 27, 2026·full·gamePk 822694free Saturday

refreshed 725h 30m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Nationals Park

gametime 1:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

87°F

humidity 62%

wind

9 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

WSH

open · HP→CF 30°

wind impact on total

+0.29 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.29 R/G vs neutral. _Nationals Park has noticeable wind variability — open bowl on Anacostia, weather matters_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Gabriel HughesRHP · COL	Jake IrvinRHP · WSH
xERA 2026	3.46	5.38
xwOBA 2026	0.289	0.353
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.035	-0.016
xERA 2025	—	5.59
xwOBA 2025	—	0.360
Outs/TB 25-26	1.88	1.61
FIP 25-26	3.85	5.46
kwERA 25-26	4.10	4.28
K% 25-26	18.9%	17.8%
BB% 25-26	8.1%	8.4%
IP 25+26 combined	42.7	257.3
ERA actual 2026	6.54	5.82
ERA (L4)	10.00	6.53
WHIP (L4)	1.67	1.45
K% (L4)	10.5%	18.7%
BB% (L4)	8.1%	9.9%
IP/gm (L4)	4.50	5.17
L4 window	07/29→08/22 (4 st)	08/05→08/22 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	80 (−7)	96 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.88 (+0.43)	4.98 (+0.64)
Arsenal RV/100	0.26	-0.39

away arsenal — COL

RV/100 0.26

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.288
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.199
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.385
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.205
Sweeper—-2.80xwOBA 0.399

home arsenal — WSH

RV/100 -0.39

4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.394
Curveball—+2.20xwOBA 0.229
Sinker—-2.00xwOBA 0.477
Cutter—-0.70xwOBA 0.395
Sweeper—-3.50xwOBA 0.344
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.192

away · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.757

Σ match

3.144

Σ FRV

-3.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Jake McCarthy	0.317	0.370	-0.8
2	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.319	0.346	+1.9
3	3B	Willi Castro	0.310	0.372	-3.7
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.323	0.372	+5.5
5	2B	Connor Norby	0.297	0.345	+0.8
6	RF	Troy Johnston	0.331	0.380	-2.7
7	C	Brett Sullivan	0.277	0.315	-4.3
8	LF	Zac Veen	0.300	0.318	-1.0
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.283	0.328	+0.6

home · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.846

Σ match

2.708

Σ FRV

+10.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	CJ Abrams	0.337	0.321	-11.6
2	RF	Dylan Crews	0.318	0.293	+1.1
3	1B	Andrés Chaparro	0.376	0.401	-1.9
4	LF	Daylen Lile	0.320	0.284	+2.4
5	3B	Brady House	0.330	0.303	-1.9
6	C	Keibert Ruiz	0.286	0.267	+0.4
7	CF	Jacob Young	0.318	0.307	+9.5
8	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.295	0.279	+3.1
9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.266	0.253	+8.9

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Brett Sullivan

FRV-4.3
framing-2.8
blocking+0.1
throwing-1.5

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Keibert Ruiz

FRV+0.4
framing+2.1
blocking-0.2
throwing-1.5

COL · Gabriel Hughes

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs CLE · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	80
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	94
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.88

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

WSH · Jake Irvin

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs MIA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	96
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	92
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.41–0.55]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.54)

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.32–0.53]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (5.40)

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.25	24.8	12.8	0.79	13/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	3.89	22.8	12.5	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.32	20.3	13.1	1.10	4/8/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.51	18.0	6.3	0.86	1/11/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.04	20.2	12.4	0.99	3/8/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	LR	4.50	15.2	7.8	2.28	2/0/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	1.83	36.8	15.8	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	1.83	20.5	2.6	—	0/0/0	—

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	4.13	22.3	10.2	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	LR	4.16	20.9	9.4	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Tom Cosgrove	SETUP	MR	4.28	19.0	5.2	1.17	1/3/1	ramping up
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.27	23.3	16.1	0.96	12/6/11	stable
Will Dion	MR	SU	3.83	29.5	6.5	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Max Kranick	MOP_UP	MR	5.26	12.7	9.9	0.67	0/1/0	insufficient data
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	3.58	14.3	14.3	—	0/0/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	11.08	23.1	23.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 COL · 7 WSH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

COL

1 R

5H · 0HR · 9BB · 10K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.161 · K% 24.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

WSH

7 R

13H · 2HR · 6BB · 6K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.442 · SLGe 0.629 · K% 14.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

COL · standout lines

tough nights

Jake McCarthy (DH) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Cole Carrigg (CF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, SB0-for-4 · 2 K
Ezequiel Tovar (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Daylen Lile (LF) · 3-4 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR · 3 H
Keibert Ruiz (C) · 2-5 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR